Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Sell high on Timlin


So I'm watching the game and Timlin is pitching well. To be honest, he has pitched well for awhile now. Ever since coming off the DL, he has really has only had one hiccup at Seattle. So why am i selling on Timlin? He is getting extremely lucky. This is a perfect example of why stats are important. Timlin looks great but with what he is doing, he should be doing significantly worse. He is only striking out 11.5% of batters, which combined with walking 5.4% is unacceptable. For a man that gets a lot of DP's, it is amazing to learn that his GB% is only 42%. If those numbers aren't scary enough, look at his BABIP. He is sporting an unreal .230 BABIP. That is nearly .100 points lower than his career average. He is bound to come back to earth in that respect. Furthermore, his FIP, 5.08, is significantly higher than his ERA, 3.82. It is all well and good that Timlin is performing, but i hope Tito is looking at the numbers I am. This man could be a train wreck in the near future.

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