Monday, July 30, 2007

Farm Hens : Jacoby Ellsbury

Red Sox fans have heard a great deal about this kid, and almost all has been good. He is the "next Johnny Damon." Well, that is not quite true. I have never really been huge on this guy. There are a bunch of reasons, but before i get there let me go over the things he does well.

Ellsbury is fast and when i say fast i mean FAST. The kid has wheels and knows how to use them. This season he has stole 35 bags while only getting caught six times. Those are the type of numbers that can truly effect a game. That doesn't mention all the times he goes first to third or scores from first on a double. He is fast and smart. You will find no complaints from me about his speed.

To complement his speed, he is a great defender. He has great range and has always had a good read off the bat. He has won numerous awards at almost every level for his defense. He has an alright arm, but the range makes up for it. He also has a good eye. He isn't an OBP machine, but its nice to have a guy that can walk than steal a base.

Now to way i don't like him. He has zero power to speak of. He has nine home runs in his whole career, that spands 3 years. In spots where he has more than 100 ABs, he has never posted a slugging percentage over .434. Based on that, we can see he isn't even hitting many doubles. It is one thing to have a guy that has little power, but no power is unacceptable.

On a same wave length as the power, he doesn't hit many line drives. For a player like him, to have a LD% around 12 just isn't good enough. Going with that, he has a GB% around 60 most of the time. Those two numbers are killers. If you can't get the ball into the air, you are bound to fail. Basically, he is relying on his ability to beat our slow hit balls. In the majors, that isn't going to work. He will probably have a BABIP around .300. Using that and what we know about his power, a line of .280/.360/.400 is a realistic goal. While that is alright for a player with his tools, he is nothing like the hype.

Alright, so i don't hate the guy. I just want people to temper the excitement. Ellsbury is probably the next Chris Duffy (as PECOTA thinks). I wouldn't hate that. I just want people to understand we aren't getting Johnny Damon. They are completely different types of players and if we compare the two, we are bound to be disappointed.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ha ha
Watch the World Series d--cheb--g.
Zero power my --s-ole.
Where is Johnny Damon now?
Red Sox Nation does NOT miss him despite 2004.
Jacoby is a better MAN.