Wednesday, July 11, 2007

I love Drew


Once again, I am here to defend J.D. Drew. I am not going to run down his attributes again. If you don't believe that he has all the skills to be a great player, than fine. But for those people that see what i see and are confused why he is not succeeding, i have a some numbers to explain. Here are his lines by month's.

April - .278/.376/.392
May - .171/.315/.237
June - .325/.404/.558
July - .250/.400/.333

At this point I should not that he hasn't had many ABs in July, so all those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. What is clear is he was great in June and awful in May. That begs the question, what was so different about the two month's? I think it can be explained by his BABIP, GB%, LD%. Here are the breakdowns by month:

April - .333/.51/.13
May - .210/.58/.19
June - .368/.53/.19
July - .353/.38/.06

His career line is normally about .320/.50/.17. Looking at that, May was an extremely unlucky month. With that LD%, he should have had a BABIP near .300. If that had happened, his line would have looked closer to .250/.400/.350. While the power still looks bad, if i can get and OBP of .400 every month i'll love it. There aren't many right fielders that can do that, but he can.

The only real knock on him is the lack of power. He is putting up way to many ground balls, about 53%. What stresses me more about that is 42.9% of those are pulled. Only 18.2% of all his contact is making it to left field. If he can get that up, he will be hitting the monster more. That means more doubles, based on the way he runs. More doubles means higher SLG%.

All that being said, the guy will walk 17% of the time every season. He will play an extremely good right field. Finally, he will start to hit doubles. Patience is a virtue. Fenway is an awful place for lefties. Until they learn to go to the opposite field, he will not be putting up the power numbers. This guy is too talented not to learn that. If it doesn't happen this year, i will promise you it will next year. Once Theo and Tito understand how to use him, he will begin to shine. You can hold me to that.

No comments: