Playoff roster

Since i am completely convinced the Red Sox will make the playoffs, it is time to start thinking about what the team will look like. There are two issues that need to be addressed. First, who will make the 25-man roster. Secondly, how will the rotation look. It is hard to establish these things definitively because of injury and possible trades, but i'm going to make an educated guess in an ideal situation.

Most players are given. The Mannys and Becketts of the world are certainly making the squad. The question is with the 4th outfielder and the finally few spots of the bullen. The 4th outfielder will ultimately come down to Wily Mo Pena, Brandon Moss, or Jacoby Ellsbury. The obvious choice is Pena. He is on the team and has the most experience, however i hate him being on the team. In a 4th outfielder, you need a person that can pinch hit, pinch run, and be a defensive replacement. Pena only has the ability to pinch hit and he has had very little success this season. Moss is the best hitter of the bunch. He also had great success in the AA playoffs last season. I think that he is too similar to Hinske to make the team, but i wouldn't mind it. Ellsbury is my pick. He plays a great CF and has a good enough arm to play the corners if needed. He is far and away the fastiest player the Red Sox have, which lends well to a 4th outfielder. Hitting isn't his strongest suit, but he has enough skills to give him a couple of at bats.

The Sox will probably carry 12 pitchers. All the starters should make it, along with Paps, Gagne, Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin. That leaves 2 spots for any combo of Lopez, Tavarez, Snyder, Hansack, Buchholz and Breslow. I think Lopez is a lock. If you don't include Lester, the Sox would have no lefties. While i don't think Lopez is a very good LOOGY, he is all we have. I would push for Hansack or Breslow. They are better pitchers than both Snyder and Tavarez, but i don't run the team. On that same note, i would mind see Buchholz up there. You will hardly see the 12 reliever, it might be good for his development. Very unlikely but i would like to see that. Tavarez is going to be the guy. Tito loves him for some odd reason. Snyder deserves it from his performance, but that doesn't matter all the time. Breslow might be a dark horse because he is a lefty.

Now that we know who will be on the team, how will they be positions. More to the point, how will the rotation look? There are two legit questions to be asked. Who will be pitching in the rotation and in what order. Normal baseball protocol now-a-days is a 4 man rotation. I wouldn't be shocked to see Beckett or Dice-K go on shorter rest but lets just assume we will stick with tradition. Beckett, Dice-K and Schilling are locks. That leaves one spot for either Lester or Wakefield. It is difficult to predict because Lester has a lot to prove, but I bet the Sox would like him to pitch himself into that rotation. It would be great to have a lefty in the rotation and Wakefield is the perfect swingman for the playoffs. He has shown the ability to come out of the pen and succeed. This might be what the Sox want, but it isn't whats going to happen. Wakefield is to stable to pitch himself out of the rotation. He will be around an ERA+ 0f 100, like he is year in and year out. Lester however will not be at that level. The guy isn't striking enough people out. When you are pitching to contact, you are bound to run into trouble. This is just not the year for Lester.

Wakefield is going to pitch Game 4 come September, but who will pitch the first three? It is really hard to say. Beckett, Schilling, and Dice-K can all make good arguments. Beckett has been a World Series MVP and pitched lights out this year. Dice-K has been struggling a little of late, but has been great this year. In Japan, Matsuzaka pitched in many high pressure situations so that shouldn't be an issue. Schilling has been the man in the past and Tito would love him to still be it. I just don't see Schilling being great from here on in and unless he is than he is bound for the 3rd game. Dice-k will pitch the second and Beckett will pitch the first. This makes the most sense because Beckett has shown that he can be very effect on 2 days of rest. So there we have it, Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, than Wakefield.

A lot can happen the last two months of the season. With injuries, regressions, and improvements, anything could happen. If the playoff were to start today that would have to be the way.