RSO's Sox Prospects List

The season is over for minor leaguers, so it is about time to make my rankings. I will do this again after the major league season is over, but I'm too tense right now. I need something to get my mind off the last week of the regular season.

1. Clay Buchholz - What hasn't been said about this kid? He has command of 4 plus pitches, has solid mechanics, and has great composure. While he is not going to throw no-hitters every time out there, he does have he ability to be an ace.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury - If you are a frequent reader of this site, you'd know that I am not Ellsbury's biggest fan. That being said, he is as much of a sure thing as anyone on this list. You can't teach his speed and defensive abilities. He does have to make strides in his approach at the plate. His swing as big holes, mainly in the upper-half of the zone. If he can learn to get the head of the bat on that high cheese, he will be an above-average hitter. To be frank, that doesn't matter, though. He brings so many things to the game, it is difficult to dislike him.

3. Michael Bowden - Am i going to chalk for everyone? Well, it doesn't matter. These guys should be 1,2,3. Bowden could be great and has as much potential as Buchholz. The reason why he is so further down is the age gap. Bowden is more than two years younger than Buchholz. It should be expected that he is less developed than his counter-part. He has a dominate fastball, that can hit 96 on the gun, to go along with an above average slider and curve. His change-up has been making strides as well. If you are looking at a prospects number you need to keep in context age. Is the player above the expected age, below, or age appropriate. Bowden is below average age, and that is why his numbers are impressive. A sub-4 FIP for a 20 year old in AA is pretty darn impressive. He also has over a 2/1 strikeouts to walk ratio, making him look legit. Expect Bowden to start at AA but make the jump to AAA if he has a good first couple starts. Don't be shocked if he is getting Buchholz-esque hype come 2009.

4. Lars Anderson - This guy is a complete beast. Much like Bowden, he is doing well above where he should be at. Drafted out of High School, this was his first year in professional baseball. He did nothing short of what was expected. He posted a .827 OPS in Greenvile before moving to Lancaster for the last several weeks of the season. While at Lancaster, he killed the ball posting a .975 OPS. If there was a concern about Lars, it would have to be his lack of power. He only hit 11 HRs all season. I, on the other hand, am not worried. Power can be developed and Lars will gain weight before he makes the majors. I fully believe he could be a 30 HR player some day. He plays decent 1st base and i expect his abilities to increase. Most experts will not have Lars this high but, because he is the only corner infielder even close to making an impact, he has to be in this slot. He is still at least 2 full seasons away, but probably 3 full season.

5. Jed Lowrie - I would have never thought this guy would have been this high prior to 2008, but that is why I am no expert. Lowrie was an offensive machine this season, while playing for Pawtucket and Portland. As a shortstop, he was able to slug .500 at Pawtucket and.501 at Portland. He didn't get on base at a crazy rate, .350 and .408, but the .408 is very good. The reason why the .06 drop may be a cause of a 4.4% increase in K% and 9.6% decrease in BB%. Generally, Lowrie has good patience. He has an uncanny ability to keep the ball off the ground, which is never a bad thing. His defense isn't great, but they have him out of position. Lowrie should be a second baseman. I think Lowrie is the best trading chip the Sox have in their farm system. They will not get rid of any of the aforementioned players, so i wouldn't be surprised if Lowrie is shipped off between now and this time next year. He will make a good second baseman for someone in two years.

6. Justin Masterson - Lots of hype around this kid, not as much truth to it as many might think. I highly doubt he will ever be a starter in the majors, which is why i am not high on him. He, however, can be a very effective reliever someday. Working out of the pen, he should be able to get his velocity around 94. If that is the case, his sinker will be nasty. I don't like his motion,either. It is pretty violent and unnatural. I don't claim to be an injury expert, but he is someone i'm looking at. There is a good chance that by the end of 2008, he will be setting up for Paps.

7. Brandon Moss - I wasn't sure where i wanted to put Moss. I think he is less of a talent than the next couple players to be listed, but i am 95% sure he will be what i think he'll be. I can't say that about the next people. Moss is a good hitter. He has shown at just about every level he can swing the bat. Give him a full season in the Majors, he will post an OPS+ around 100. If you don't believe me, i'll take any and all bets. That being sad, i will also take any bets who thinks he can post an OPS+ above 110. In my eyes, he is perfectly projectable as average. Now that he is learning to play first, i see him being with the Sox for awhile as the 4th outfielder/utility guy. You can't say that about everyone, so that's why he is at #7.

8. Oscar Tejeda - Is he the next Hanley Ramirez? Probably not, but he might be. How many 17 year olds can put up a .347 OBP in A ball. I'll tell you, not many. He is very young, so nothing is a certain. he could fizzle out just as easy as anybody, but i really like him. He is a little shaking as a SS, which might lead him to be a CFer, but his range has never been a question mark. He has speed coming out of his ears. Weight gain should be a top priority for Tejeda. He has the swing for HRs but he just doesn't have the power right now. Big potential but big risk. Keep your eyes on him.

9. Nick Hagadone - The only member of the 2007 draft to make the list, Hadagone has impressed in his short stint at Lowell. He was able to post a 1.85 ERA and a 4.13 K/BB rate. His ERA is stunted by his debut where he let up all 5 of his earned runs. I was a little skeptical about putting him on so early into his career, but he is so clearly the best lefty the Sox have it is impossible to leave him off. He has the ability to hit 98 on the gun, however 95 is a much more realistic goal. I wouldn't be shocked if we see him sooner rather than later. College closers tend to have a quicker path to the bigs than most. I'd say he could be a regular in the Sox pen by mid-2009.

10 - Che-Hsuan Lin - With the last pick of the top 10, i'm going pure upside. Lin could be the best prospect in the Sox organization come 2010. He has as much talent as anyone on this list, but is terrible young. The Taiwan import had little success in his short stint with Lowell, but did show flashes of his talent. He is an athletic centerfielder, that has great range and an above-average arm. Lin does a good job of getting the bat on the ball and has good plate discipline. If you are not familar with Lin, it is about time you get to know him. I would like to see the Sox start him in Greenville, but i doubt they move him from Lowell. Like Tejeda, huge upside but huge risk.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Kalish, Will Middlebrooks, Kris Johnson, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Dent.


I would really like to hear your feedback. I spend a lot of time following these guys via online, but have little actual game experience with many of these players. If you have seen something that i didn't mention, or just flat out disagree with me, i'd love to hear it. I plan on revisiting this topic sometime in winter, so get your opinions in now.

Winter League

Just a quick hit here. The rosters for Winter league have came out and the Sox have 6 players participating. Those players are Ryan Kalish, Daniel Bard, Jason Place, Brandon Moss, Jimmy James, and Argenis Diaz. Kalish and Moss are the big names their. Kalish is a 19 year old kid that did great in Lowell. Sadly, he got hurt and missed a good chunk of the season. Moss is going to practice first. If he makes strides, their is no doubt he is on the 25-man roster come 2008. This could be huge for Place and Bard. They both have tons of talent but have played extremely poorly in the minors. Diaz and James are nothing to get all that excited about, sorry guys. I'll keep you posted on those players as the seasons get underway.

Daisuke is Struggling

Is it any surprise that Dice-K is having a rough go at it? No, of coarse not. He leads the AL in PAPs. This is his first season in a 5-man rotation. Players are starting to adjust to his pitching style. Finally, he walks people like it's his job. Until he gets better control, he is doomed to struggle. If he can't turn it around, I find it hard to believe the Red Sox will get out of the ALDS.

Sizing up the Jays

It was pretty successful last time, so why not do it again. Here is a look at both the Starters for the Jays and the Sox and who they struggle against.

Jesse Litsch vs.
David Ortiz - .667/.667/1.000 (3)
Alex Cora - .333/.333/.667 (3)
Doug Mirabelli - .333/.333/.667 (3)

Roy Halladay vs.
David Ortiz - .304/.342/.609 (73)
Mike Lowell - .353/.389/.882 (18)
J.D. Drew - .400/.500/.400 (12)

Shaun Marcum vs.
Mike Lowell - .375/.375/.750 (8)
Manny Ramirez - .500/.571/1.500 (7)
J.D. Drew - .250/.400/.500 (5)

Looking at those, I would expect Papi and Drew to both have a good series. Drew could really use it. Papi has been on a tear anyways, so it is just a plus that there are nice pitching match-ups. I wouldn't be surprised if Tito give DP or Lugo the day off tomorrow and start Cora.

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs.
Alexis Rios - .375/.500/.500 (10)
Aaron Hill - .375/.444/.875 (9)
Troy Glaus - .667/.667/1.333 (6)

Josh Beckett vs.
Lyle Overbay - .350/.500/.400 (26)
Vernon Wells - .381/.435/1.000 (23)
Aaron Hill - .333/.368/.556 (19)

Curt Schilling vs.
Vernon Wells - .438/.444/.563 (18)
Frank Thomas - .625/.556/.625 (9)
Troy Glaus - .429/.429/.571 (7)

Man, does Glaus and Wells have some great numbers. These are suppose to be the aces of the Sox staff, so this series will be interesting. The youngsters pick it up against the O's, what will the vets do? Magic # is at 20, wahoooooo!

First Set Of Call-Ups

Today marks the first day of September, and that means the rosters expand. The Sox have been plagued with injuries, so this couldn't have came at a better time. As of this point they have brought up 5 players, but expect more after Pawtucket's season raps up. So far, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, Royce Clayton, and Bryan Corey have been called up. With Manny, Drew, and Kielty ailing, I would guess we see a lot of Ellsbury and Moss over the next week. Buchholz will be the starter tonight for the Sox, since Tavarez had to pitch last night. Clayton is here for insurance and Corey is for depth in the pen. I wouldn't count on seeing much of either player.

Hansen Sighting

I think it is about time for a Craig Hansen update. The 2005 first rounder was a promising reliever when first draft. He was rushed to the majors and was less than successful. To get Hansen back on track, the Red Sox have kept him in the minors all season. It started off very rough, posting an ERA north of 5 for the first 3 month's of the season. Most Red Sox fans have wrote her off, opting to root for fellow 2005 draftee Manny Delcarmen. It might be about time to start taking Hansen serious again because he has coming on very strong of late.

In Hansen's last 10 outings, he has posted an ERA of 0.54 over 16.2 innings. Over the same span, he has 23 strike outs and walking only 5. From what I am hearing, he has rediscovered the slider that made him special at St. Johns. He is still only 23 years old, so it is way to early to write him off. He will almost certainly see time in Boston as a September call-up. No matter what the results are, he is the most talented reliever in the Sox farm system. Patience is never more of a virtue than when judging relievers. The variance from one year to the next is crazy.

Sizing up the O's

The up coming series against the O's may end up being an important series. With this Yankee series looking all but over, it is going to be important that the Sox atleast win this weekend set. It appears the Wakefield, Tavarez, and Lester will be the starters for the series. Here are the O's that each pitcher should be scared of and why. The number in the parenthesis is plate appearances.

Tim Wakefield vs.
Miguel Tejeda - .304/.324/.594 (72)
Ramon Hernandez - .344/.400/.594 (35)
Kevin Millar - .474/.524/.947 (21)

Julian Tavarez vs.
Aubrey Huff - .417/.417/.583 (12)
Kevin Millar - .333/.500/.778 (12)
Nick Markakis - .400/.400/.800 (10)

Jon Lester vs.
Ramon Hernandez - .500/.667/.500 (3)
Melvin Mora - 1.000/1.000/1.000 (3)
Corey Patterson - .333/.333/1.333 (3)

Lester hasn't faced anyone more that 3 times, so his numbers are kind of fluke. He pitched an awful game against them, which inflated all the stats. 3 plate appearances just isn't enough to show a trend. Wakefield has seen the O's a lot and with some marginal success. For some reason, our old friend Kevin Millar is a huge fan of facing Wake. He subscribes to the "if its high, let it fly. If it's low, let it go." theory of hitting the knockler. Read more about that in this weeks Sports Illustrated.

The important of this series is subject to argument. I, personally, thinks it's very important. We can either start printing the banner or worrying about the Yanks. If the Sox pitchers can keep this hitters in check, there is a good chance that the former will prevail. I'm just excited to not be playing the Yankees.

A Man Alone

I must be insane. My relationship with J.D. Drew is very abusive one. I know i should leave, but I'm scared about my life after him. It was love at first sight when i say the Red Sox signed Drew. It was like i was living on cloud nine. "Wow, Drew!," i said, "he is the perfect replacement for Trot." How wrong i was. Drew has done nothing to warrant my excitement. He is hitting .259/.359/.39o, but the SABR stats are even more worrisome. It isn't just his hitting either. His defense has proven to be less than advertised. To show his fall, look at his current stats and last years.

2007
EqA - .255
EqR - 47
WARP3 - 3.1
OPS+ - 97
RC/27 - 4.9
Batting WS - 6.7
Fielding WS - 1.9
Rate2 - 91
FRAA - -8

2006
EqA - .299
EqR - 89
WARP3 - 8.5
OPS+ - 125
RC/27 - 7.6
Batting WS - 18.5
Fielding WS - 3.1
Rate2 - 112
FRAA - 12

At this point i should note that many people view last year as a down year for Drew. Every stat i just showed clearly explains why he is a disappointment. He hasn't improved anything. In many stats, he went from a good hitter to a below average hitter. I guess that begs the question, why has this happened? That is a lot more difficult to explain that one would think. When trying to explain this i looked at his rates and what i found was rather shocking. Besides the power rates, nothing makes sense.

2007
K% - 18.5%
BB% - 14.8
LD% - 17%
GB% - 48%
BABIP - .316
ISOP - .131

2006
K% - 17.8%
BB% - 15%
LD% - 18%
GB% - 47%
BABIP - .326
ISOP - .251

Yes, every rate is down. But none of those are noticeably down, besides ISOP. Changes like that can be attributed to many different things and the best argument would not be a decline in talent. So, we are right back to where we were before i showed the stats. What is the problem? He is hitting lefties extremely poorly this season, but it is not like he was ever Babe Ruth against them to beginning with. League change? Maybe, he hit his best during interleague play. There has to be something to the familiarity or hitters with pitchers. Family issues? Yes, his young child has been sick. I really can't speak to this one. He seems like the kind of guy that can play through something like this, but he isn't a robot. I'm sure it has effected him to some extent. The new home ballpark? I doubt it. He needs to learn how to hit to the opposite field and use the monster, that's why his BABIP is 50 points lower at home, but overall the numbers are pretty close.

I give up. I can't find any specific thing that is wrong with the guy. Clearly, he is not the same player. But to why? I can't answer. Your guess is as good as mine. What i can say for a fact is, he is as talented as anyone on this team. Will it ever manifest itself on the field? I really hope so. Many people don't like his attitude, but the guy is just odd. He doesn't show emotion, that doesn't mean he doesn't have them. From here on in, me and Drew are on a break. I hope we can rekindle our love sooner rather than later.

More Promotions

I wrote earlier that Tejeda was promoted to Lowell, now he is joined by some of his old teammates. Both Ryan Dent and Che-Hsuan Lin were promoted to Lowell from the Gulf Coast League. There is only a handful of games left, so this move is extremely minor in terms of this year. That being said, this could be big for next season. My guess is, they did this so these players can start somewhere higher than low A. It is very likely that they will start the season at Lancaster and Greenville. If that is the case, we will truly get to see what we have in this teenagers. I'll keep you posted on their success in Lowell.

Roster Expansion

As far as I know, on September 1st major league teams are allowed to expand their roster by 15 players. That means, potentially, all players on the 40 man roster can be called up. I believe as a prerequisite, you must be on the 40 man roster prior to the first. So lets look at who is currently on the roster but not active.

Pitcher
Craig Breslow
Clay Buccholz
Matt Clement *
Brendon Donnelly *
Daniel Haigwood
Devern Hansack
Craig Hansen
Kyle Jackson
Jon Lester
Edgar Martinez
David Pauley

Positional Player
Doug Mirabelli
George Kottaras
Jacoby Ellsbury
Brandon Moss

* 60-day DL

Out of these players, there are very few players i would be shocked if they got the call. I highly doubt Kyle Jackson and Daniel Haigwood. They are both struggling at AA Portland and have very little upside. Edgar Martinez and David Pauley might not get the call either, mainly for there uselessness. Neither are high upside or lefties, making them expendable. Of the positional players, George Kottaras will probably be the only player not called up. They don't need 4 catchers and they would rather start his arbitration clock next year. By my best guess, that would put the Sox at anywhere between 11 and 7 call ups. Makes a lot of sense for a team with this large of a lead.

Notable none call-ups
Chris Carter
Jed Lowrie
Justin Masterson
Bobby Scales
Royce Clayton
Travis Hughes
Bryan Corey
Abe Alvarez

This is where I get confused. From my understanding, these players can not be called up because they are not on the 40 man roster. If this fact is true, than the only way they can get called up is if they make some roster moves. Once again, i can only see Daniel Haigwood and Kyle Jackson being shafted off the roster. My guess they would fill one of those spots with Lowrie. He is a promising young prospect and would be the only infield call-up. Good chance Chris Carter or Travis Hughes would be the options for the other spot. Carter was the player the Red Sox got in return for Pena. This guy can flat out hit, so he could be a very valuable as a pinch hitter. Problem is he can't play defense and has little speed. Hughes is the closer at Pawtucket and is having a career year. With a sub-2 ERA and a low WHIP, he makes a lot of sense. The problem is, he is 29 years old and has just about no upside. Masterson would be nice, but why start his arbitration clock this year. best bet is to wait and see where he is next spring.

I'll write about who they actually call up in a couple of days, but for now those are my predictions. A team like the Red Sox in their position will probably bring up at least 7 players. They have a big lead and several players they would like to have a look at or give a rest. September call-ups often make a bigger impact of teams than the average fan would expect.