Win Projections

Lets have a little fun with the numbers from Bill James and try to predict how many wins the Red Sox will have.

Players - Runs

Alex Cora - 32
Coco Crisp - 74
J.D. Drew - 92
Eric Hinske - 43
Mike Lowell - 66
Doug Mirabelli - 15
Dustin Pedroia - 79
Wily Mo Pena - 57
David Ortiz - 110
Manny Ramirez - 94
Jason Varitek - 60
Kevin Youkilis - 101
Julio Lugo - 85

Total = 908


Pitchers - In/ERA/Runs Allowed

Josh Beckett - 208/3.68/85
Manny Delcarmen - 58/3.88/25
Brendan Donnelly - 66/3.41/25
Kason Gabbard - 43/4.81/23
Jon Lester - 78/4.38/38
Jonathan Papelbon - 184/2.98/61
J.C Romero - 45/4.40/22
Curt Schilling - 180/3.50/70
Joel Pineiro - 54/4.50/27**
Kyle Snyder - 80/4.84/43
Julian Tavarez - 75/4.56/38
Mike Timlin - 70/3.86/30
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 186/3.44/71*
Tim Wakefield - 152/4.14/70
Craig Hansen - 78/4.73/41*


Total - 669
After Unearned Runs = 744

RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2)
908^2/(908^2+744^2)
824464/(824464+553536)
824464/1378000
60%
97 wins

*James had no predictions for these players so i used ZiPS instead.
**He was predicted to be a started to i adjusted him to relief pitcher.


So there you have my prediction for the season, 97 wins. While this is not very scientific it is still a fair way to judge. While i do not believe this is 100% accurate, due to predictions, inferences, and estimates, i believe it will turn out to be relatively accurate. Injuries could change a lot about this season and how pitchers and hitters maintain these stat lines may change things up. But this was just for fun. But if it comes out that the Sox win 97 games, you can all call me a genius.