Pitchers Projections

Curt Schilling

	IP	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Actual	204	15	7	3.97	28	28	183
ZiPS	190	15	7	3.98	25	28	163
James	180	12	8	3.5	22	30	177
Shandler	174	13	8	3.83	21	35	155
PECOTA
Average	181	13	8	3.77	23	31	165

Josh Beckett

	IP	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Actual	204.7	16	11	5.01	36	74	158
ZiPS	182	14	10	4.55	26	61	143
James	208	13	10	3.68	24	75	191
Shandler	203	15	11	4.3	27	72	176
PECOTA
Average	198	14	10	4.18	26	69	170

Daisuke Matsuzaka

	IP	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Actual
ZiPS	186	15	8	3.44	18	34	131
James
Shandler*	185	15	7	3.46	25	51	197
PECOTA	187.3			4.01	19	52	167
Average	186	15	8	3.64	21	46	165

Jonathon Papelbon

	IP	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO	SV
Actual	68.3	4	2	0.92	3	13	75	35
ZiPS	113	7	3	3.66	14	27	106
James	184	14	6	2.98	17	48	181
Shandler	174	11	6	3.47	19	46	157
PECOTA
Average	157	11	5	3.37	17	40	148

Tim Wakefield

	IP	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Actual	140	7	11	4.63	19	51	90
ZiPS	178	11	12	5.16	31	63	114
James	152	8	8	4.14	21	55	108
Shandler	160	10	10	4.4	21	57	103
PECOTA
Average	163	10	10	4.57	24	58	108

Thank you Sons of Sam Horn for the compilation of these stats, I do not have Shandler, ZiPS or PECOTAs stats on hand so this was really nice.

When i was going through the James handbook it was shocking as to how well James had rated Papelbon. It is truly hard for these great minds to establish how good his numbers will translate from closer to starter, but if these are correct we should be very encouraged about him. Everyone has him with a high K/9 rate and a low ERA. The wins don't really mean all that much, but the innings are kind of discouraging. I would like to see him get 200 innings but thats probably not going to happen and these stats portray that.

For Dice-K, he, like Paps, is expected to have a good ERA. His K/9 are not as steller but still solid. I expect Dice-K to reach 200 innings, but apparently I am in the minority. He has prove to have a strong arm, and looking at his stats in Japan are misleading, since they had a 6-man rotation. Sadly, James had no predictions in his book about him but the other sources seem to have a decent consensus, and a good one at that.

Besides James, everyone has Beckett and Wakefield having a relatively disappointing year. Beckett will improve his numbers, but no one is expecting him to be the Ace that Red Sox fans have been dreaming of. That being said, I would not be let down if Beckett puts up a 4 ERA in 200 innings. Speaking on Wake, if he preforms how ZiPS is projecting, I would not be shocked to see him in the bullpen and Lester in the rotation. Like Beckett, if we can get a year like James predicts, we could be looking at a AL East title. The odd thing is all foresee Wake raising his innings, Ks, and HRs.

Schilling is expected to be Schilling. He is getting up there in age, and this is probably his last year, but he has the potential to be a very good pitcher. He will eat innings, get strikeouts, and have a solid ERA. He could very well be the stabilizing force on this young staff. I think these predictions are well done and if they pan out the Sox have a great staff that could easily make the playoffs, maybe even the World Series (knock on wood).