Thursday, March 22, 2007

Theo the GM


Is it possible to trade a GM? If so i believe that this would be the best thing the Red Sox FOs have done since buying the team for $700 million. Clearly this is not an option, maybe we can let his contract run out and get a 1st round pick? Again, kidding. My point is Theo is viewed to be a good to great GM, but no facts truly show this. Lets take a look at his trade history.

Lets start with his first really big trade, Shea Hillenbrand to Arizona for Byung-Hyun Kim. Lets take it back to the time, 2003. The Red Sox were in desperate need of a closer, and that is what BK Kim was. The bullpen was full of players like Chad Fox, Alan Embree, and Ramiro Mendoza. Mendoza, a great free agent signing which we will touch upon in part 2, was brutal. In 66.7 innings he posted a 6.75 ERA and a 70 ERA+. For Kim's credit he was pretty good that first year. In 80 innings he post a 148 ERA+ and collect 16 saves. That is defiantly an upgrade over Brandon Lyon, who was the closer pre-Kim. Also, that year, Hillenbrand was completely average. His raw number look pretty impressive, BA 303 with 38 RBIs in 185 ABs, but those numbers don't tell the true story. If you look at his OPS+ you will see that he was completely average, posting a 100. So, at the time, it looked pretty even. Fast forward to 2004. Kim pitched in just 17 innings posting a 6.23 ERA and 1 K/BB ratio. Looking back, that team could have won the World Series if it wasn't for the reliance. Looking at Hillenbrand, he has keep pretty close to what he was doing in Boston, around a 100 OPS+. Although he has been a headache, his skills have no diminished quite like Kim.

Freddy Sanchez and cash for Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck. God, i can talk about how bad this trade was for hours if i truly wanted to. I'm not even going to do any analysis. The combine ERA of the 2 pitchers that came to the Red Sox was 5.74 and they were not retained after the season. Freddy put up and OPS of .851 last season, and won the batting title. I don't know if this was bad scouting, or just a deal made out of desperation but either way it stinks and has no justification.

The Next 2 trades Theo made were actually pretty good. Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, and Jorge De la Rosa for Curt Schilling plus received Mark Bellhorn in a combination trade with Colorado. What Schilling has done is well documents, he has been an ace in all sense of the word. Fossum, Lyon, and De la Rosa have turned into nothing special. As much as i love the deal, its hard for me to give Theo much credit here. Maybe its my bias against him or the luxury of foresight but i thought this was a no brainer. Belhorn, while in 2005 was brutal, was extremely strong in 2004. He was an above average hitter, playing second base, for a World Series championship team. I can say nothing bad about this deal, great trade.

The most infamous trade of Theo's career is the Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz. Hard to judge this deal. It achieved the ultimate goal, which is win the World Series, but in the end we sort of lost. Murton and Nomar are still playing, relatively well too. Cabrera and Mientkiewicz were not retain at the end of the season. Hard to say this was a bad trade. Personally, I am neutral to it. It gets a lot of hype, but i really don't see much in it. But hey,we won it all so I'm not going to complain. Another quick trade that gets associated with this on is the Henry Stanley for Dave Roberts. Who is Stanley? You have me beat. Roberts had the most famous steal in Red Sox history. Whether or not it matter is up for debate, but it worked and we won. Besides that, Roberts did very little but since we gave up nothing what does one expect?

During the '05 season, the Red Sox essentially trade Dave Roberts for Chad Bradford. Yes, we got Jay Payton for Roberts than flipped Payton later for Bradford, and i will touch on that. Dave Roberts was really an odd man out for the Sox. Its truly a shame because he is one of the most underrated players in resent history. That is the reason for trading him, and its a valid reason. What we got in return was just dumb. What we got back was another OF, Payton, that was skilled but a headache. The reason for him being a headache was we didn't need him. Clearly Payton wasn't a 4th OF and that's what we were asking of him. When he started to complain we traded him for Bradford. Do not get me wrong, Bradford is and was a fine pitcher, but Theo was employing the sell low technique. Are you telling me that the best we could get for a solid Outfielder was a middle reliever? It was just stupid to trade him when they did, not to mention the precedent it set. Hey, in Boston, if you complain enough you can get out of town. Ultimately, why did he acquire Payton? It doesn't make sense, and please don't talk to me about the prospects, they were all throw ins.

Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte than Andy Marte for Coco Crisp. Once again, there are other minor players in the deal, such as Josh Bard, but these were the major players. First off, trade Renteria is slightly shocking. He only had once year, and his year wasn't all that bad. While .276/.335/.385 isn't anything to get excited about, it also isn't something to panic about after one year. That being said, i think getting Marte for him was a very good deal. Marte was the 9th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. When we flipped Marte to Crisp it was slightly questionable, but they needed a replacement for Damon and Coco looked like he could have been. This is a trade that a good deal of Sox fans hate. I agree that there is reason to hate this, but i personally do not. If you look at it as Renteria for Crisp, its pretty fair. Neither had great first seasons, but i still think Crisp has potential. He is healthy this year, supposedly, and if he can return to his plays with the Indians he will be solid.

Next, Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. Lets just start off with why? Personally, i don't really know. I understand the Arroyo was our 6th starter and Pena was a nice young players but to say that is to ignore key facts. Pena was ready to be a starter, he was not going to be given that chance here. With Coco, Manny, and Nixon the OF was set. How was Pena going to start is beyond me. Its great to have a 4th outfielder, but its really not important. What is more important than a 4th Outfielder is a 6th starter. Pitchers are so fragile and go down every year. Why would we not keep an extremely solid starter just in case? Its not like they got a player that was helping them here and now. What makes me the most upset is what they did to Arroyo. They sign him to a new deal, in which he took a hometown discount, than quickly flip him to the Reds. I'm sorry but that just really tough love, to the point of it being classless.

Finally, Josh Bard and Cla Meredith for Doug Mirabelli. This is another dozy of a trade. Not only did Josh Brad play out of hit pants last year, .333/.404/.522, Cla Meredith did as well. Cla was one of the best relievers in the game last year posting a 1.07 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He would have been a nice addition to an extremely lackluster bullpen that the Red Sox had last season. How did Doug do? Depends on your standards. If you think .191/.234/.328 is good, well than he did fine. But if you are actually looking for a solid backup catcher, those numbers are brutal. The only reason why this trade happened is because of Bards ineptitude to catching the knuckle ball. He was never really given a shot, as most people understand. This was just an example of trigger finger that cost the Sox greatly.

So there you have it, the major trades during Theo's time as GM. Not the best record of trades. He made many trades that made no sense and several where he could have got more.

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