Rizzo signs

Another big name from the 2007 draft signs with the Sox. Andrew Rizzo signs for $325,000. A power hitting first baseman from Florida, Rizzo was taken in the sixth round. Once again, the Red Sox go over the recommended slot price by MLB. With about 5 hours expect to hear some more names. Will Middlebrooks seems like he should sign soon.

Going out of town

Nothing to do with the Sox, just a message. I'm going to Canada for next next couple days, so i thought it might be a perfect chance to bring someone aboard as a guest writer. If this person succeeds, I'll keep him on the roster going forward. So for the half dozen people that actually read this site, if you are interested let me know. You can either leave a message hear and leave me your e-mail or you can just go ahead and e-mail me yourself at RSOripwa@gmail.com.

Sell high on Timlin

So I'm watching the game and Timlin is pitching well. To be honest, he has pitched well for awhile now. Ever since coming off the DL, he has really has only had one hiccup at Seattle. So why am i selling on Timlin? He is getting extremely lucky. This is a perfect example of why stats are important. Timlin looks great but with what he is doing, he should be doing significantly worse. He is only striking out 11.5% of batters, which combined with walking 5.4% is unacceptable. For a man that gets a lot of DP's, it is amazing to learn that his GB% is only 42%. If those numbers aren't scary enough, look at his BABIP. He is sporting an unreal .230 BABIP. That is nearly .100 points lower than his career average. He is bound to come back to earth in that respect. Furthermore, his FIP, 5.08, is significantly higher than his ERA, 3.82. It is all well and good that Timlin is performing, but i hope Tito is looking at the numbers I am. This man could be a train wreck in the near future.

Offerman charged with assault

Former Red Sox star, Jose Offerman, was charged with two counts of second degree assault after an incident that happened during Tuesday nights game. After being pitched at, Offerman charged the mound with bat in hand and swung at the pitcher, Matt Beech, breaking his right middle finger. He went to swing again but the catcher was able to spot it. In stopping it, the catcher took a strong hit to the head and is suffering from a concussion. Offerman posted a $10,000 bond and is scheduled in court on the 23rd. This is one of the scariest stories i have heard in a long time. I hope the courts are very stern and set a precedent because this is just unacceptable.

Who's who?

Lets take a look at a couple pitchers that the Red Sox have had in their farm system. I wont put a name on the players, so we don't get a jaded point of view based on what we have seen and heard.

IP-BB%-K%-ERA-FIP

Player A
30.1 6.5% 39% 3.26 2.89

Player B
71.2 10.1% 16.7% 3.89 3.85

Player C
112.1 6.4% 23.3% 3.77 3.51

Out of these players, who deserves to be a big league starter? Looking at the numbers I would say Player C is the most appealing. He has done the best over a long period of time. Player A has the best numbers by far, but just hasn't pitched enough innings to know for sure. Player A leads in every category but IP and BB% and is only .1% behind in BB%. If he can put together one or two more starts at this quality, their is no doubt he should be the man.

I could go back and forth about which player i would rather, player A or C. What i do know for certain is Player B would not be my guys. He is walking too many guys, not striking enough guys out and is allowing the most runs. He seems like a guy that needs time down in the minors working on his control.

All that being said, lets reveal who the players are. Player A is Clay Buchholz. Player B is Jon Lester and Player C is Devern Hansack. Based on the numbers, the one player that has no argument in being in the majors is the man that has the job. Take what you want from that.

Dent signs

The Red Sox announced that they signed their 62nd pick in the 2007 draft, Ryan Dent, yesterday Dent is a promising young shortstop from California. He signed for $571,000, which is actually over the recommended slot price by the MLB, $526,500. The deadline for signing draft picks is 37 hours away, so expect to hear about this soon. Sometime after Wednesday i will do a complete run down of who signed and who did and eventually i hope to do write ups on a couple of them.

2008 Boston Red Sox

In times like these, I like to look to the future. I could sit here and write about how i hate this team, how i can't believe this is happening, or how much i want Theo and Tito out of town. I will not do that because all it does is get me more angry. So instead, i'm going to take a look at what the team might look like come next April. Obviously, this will all be speculation but it is interesting to look at.

Under contract
C - Jason Varitek ($9 M)
1st - Kevin Youkilis (>$1 M)
2nd - Dustin Pedroia (>$1 M)
SS - Julio Lugo ($9 M)
3rd - UNKNOWN
Rf - J.D. Drew ($14 M)
Cf - Coco Crisp ($4.75 M) or Jacoby Ellsbury (>$1 M)
Lf - Manny Ramirez ($20 M)
DH - David Ortiz ($12.5 M)
Bench - Coco Crisp ($4.75 M) or Jacoby Ellsbury (>$1 M)
Bench - Alex Cora ($2 M)
Bench - Wily Mo Pena (>$3 M)
Bench - UNKNOWN

SP - Josh Beckett ($9.5M)
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka ($8M)
SP - Clay Buchholz (>$1M)
SP - Jon Lester (>$1M)
SP - Tim Wakefield ($4M)*
RP - Julian Tavarez ($3.85M)*
RP - Hideki Okajima ($1.25M)
RP - Javier Lopez (>$1M)
RP - Manny Delcarmen (>$1M)
RP - UNKNOWN
RP - UNKNOWN
Cl - Jonathan Papelbon (>$1M)

*Those players have club options. The Sox may choose to let them walk, but for now lets assume they don't.

Based on those totals, the Red Sox have around $105 million rapped up on next years team. They have to replace 4 positions, /3rd baseman/backup catcher/2 relief pitcher. I doubt they will be able to replace the 4rd baseman internally. That means they will have to go outside the organization or resign Lowell. We will get back to resigning players later. Their isn't much on the market in terms of 3rd baseman. For free agents, the Sox would be picking between Mike Lamb and Pedro Feliz. Both are really below average and i strongly doubt the Sox would sign either to start.

In terms of a trade, their are a couple guys that might be on the blocks. The long shot is Miguel Cabrera. He is one of the best young players in baseball, but has some downsides. He will cost the Sox a lot to get and his weight issues and defensive skills are suspect. A name that hasn't been talked about is Garret Atkins. Their is a log jam in Colorado and Atkins might be the odd man out. I am not really sure how much it will cost, but if it is reasonable it could be a great pick up. Being a righty, he will have a chance to thrive in Fenway. Last year was a breakout year, but this year he has regressed. I am not all that worried about that. His LD% and GB% are great. He is just getting unlucky in terms of BABIP. Don't be surprised if you see Atkins at the hot corner next year.

The backup catcher situation is really not a huge deal. Their is a small chance that they could look inside the organization. George Kottaras might be a good enough hitter to be a backup. He is also appealing because he has experience catching the knockleball. Mark Wagner and Jon Still are probably at least a year away. Externally is the more likely route. I honestly have no clue who they will target. The only thing to keep in mind is Wakefield has implied that when Mirabelli goes, so will he. Keep an eye on that in the off-season.

The Red Sox will most defiantly look internally for atleast one of the two openings in the bullpen. Devern Hansack has been great in AAA. If given the shot, he could be a very good long man. Travis Hughes has had a long road to where he is right now, but he is shining right now. While he is pushing 30 years old, he has posted a sub-2 ERA for almost the hole season. I have a man crush on Craig Breslow and am very confident in his abilities to pitch in the majors. Than you have to mention Craig Hansen. He is the most talented of the bunch but has yet to reach his potential. He is coming around of late, so i wouldn't be shocked if he is on the team. Their are guys on the free agent market, but nothing that seems right. Maybe a Scott Linebrink or Kerry Wood would be worth a look but i wouldn't go their. The price will be higher than the rewards. If I was in charge Breslow and Hansack are the guys i would go with.

Now that we have an idea of who is staying here and who might replace the departed, maybe it's about time to see who is actually leaving.

Expiring Contracts
Curt Schilling - $13M
Mike Lowell - $9M
Matt Clement - $9.5M
Eric Gagne - $6M
Eric Hinske - $5.625M
Mike Timlin - $2.8M
Brendan Donnelly - $1.4M
Doug Mirabelli - $.75M

For those players to rejoin the Red Sox, they would need to sign new contracts. Lets assume they don't and try to predict their Free Agency status. I think Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell, and Eric Gagne will all be Type A free agents. That means if they sign with a team other than the Red Sox, the Sox will receive a first round and supplemental round draft pick from the team they sign with. That right there is six high draft picks for the Sox to work with.

I find it very difficult for all these players to walk. It has been reported that Curt Schilling really wants to stay. It remains to be seen if the Sox have anywhere near the interest that Schilling has. He is getting up their in age and has shown signs of deterioration of late. Eric Hinske isn't an awful bench player. He can play multiple position and has good on base abilities. Wakefield really wants Mirabelli to stay. I'm not sure if that is going to be enough reason to keep the awful bat the Mirabelli has. Lowell is the most likely to stay. Everyone on the team loves the guy, he loves it here, and he has succeeded. With a very limited amount of options at 3rd, Lowell will probably be back. If they can get him for something like a 3 year 30 million dollar deal, they should do it.

There is still a lot of time between now and April. Hell, there is still 2 months of this season. I just needed to think about something that isn't bad. I hope it got everyone mind off of the crap the is happening.

Drew surging again

Not a lot of good news to report after a bad weekend for Red Sox nation. One trend that is promising is the revival of J.D. Drew. If you read this frequently, you will know that i am a huge Drew fan. I think he has the most talent on this team, outside of Manny. Sadly, he has done nothing this season to show that besides an amazing June. I, among many others, thought it was the turning point for him. That ended up being wrong. Struggling mightily in July, many people started to bitch and moan again. Well, it's about time to jump back on that band wagon. In August, Drew is hitting .433/.500/.600. Apparently, Scott Boras might have something to do with this recent success. Whatever is the cause, I'm expecting it to continue. If it doesn't, feel free to call me out on it.

The Gagne trade revisited

Some time has passed since the Red Sox traded Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre to the Ranger in exchange for Eric Gagne. While the first two are pretty well known names among Red Sox fan, neither have very much upside. Beltre, the 17 year old stud from the Dominican, is just that, 17 years old. The kid can't even vote. Potential is a scary word to throw around when talking about kids.

When you break down the players even further you will realize that they aren't top prospects at all. Gabbard, at best, is the 4th best pitcher in the Red Sox organization. You could also make the argument that Johnson, Hagadone, Hanson, Bard, and Pauley are more highly regarded that Gabbard as well. If you are to argue he is better than those four, it is hard to put him even in the same league as Masterson, Bowden, and Buchholz. What i am trying to get at is Gabbard wasn't anything special in terms of the Red Sox organization.

David Murphy is a kid that the Sox have been excited about for it seems like a decade. In reality, it has been 4 years since Murphy was a first round selection. For all his hype, Murphy has never posted an OPS over .802 in a season where he has more than 100 plate appearance. He is a good defender, but he is hardly anything special. He can play all the outfield spots, but would be a below average ML center fielder. In the context of the Sox organization, Murphy ranked anywhere between the 3rd and 6th best outfielder. He is definatly below Moss and Ellsbury. It is arguable that he is below Reddick, Engel, and Kalish. In summation, Murphy is, again, nothing special. He is, at best, a good 4th outfielder.

It is hard to evaluate where Engel Beltre ranks in term of the Sox. Their is no denying that he has tons of talent. You can't rank him among other known prospects since he is so much young than them. Lets rank him among international signings of the last two years. The Sox have signed three other bright young stars in that span other than Beltre, Tejeda, Almanzar, and Lin. In terms of signing bonuses, Beltre ranks second to Almanzar who signed for almost a full million more than Beltre. In terms of numbers to this point, Beltre ranks last. Almanzar has yet to play a game so he isn't included in this discussion. To make my point, he is not the only young bright star we have. My best guess, he is the third best youngster behind Lin and Almanzar.

Now that we have established that these players aren't all that special, what does that tell us? It tells us one of two things. It either shows how extremely strong the Red Sox farm system is or how overrated the Yankees is. The reason why i say that second thing is that the Yanks were in on the Gagne sweepstakes but withdrew because of the high cost. Obviously, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Tabata are strong prospects but i highly doubt those players would have been needed. It was the second tier of players and the Yanks couldn't beat a deal that had zero of the Red Sox top 10 prospects. The Yankees needed Gagne a lot more than the Red Sox did. So what happened here? I think that the Yankees prospects are a little bit overrated and the Red Sox are a little bit underrated. Either way, we got the guy and gave up very little. How can we complain.

Pena clears waivers

Call me shocked, i just don't get this one. The Herald is reporting that Wily Mo Pena has successfully cleared waivers and is no free to be traded to any team. I'm not shocked he was put on waivers, almost all players do and the Sox want to get rid of Pena, but rather that he got threw without anyone making a claim. He is only owed about a half of a million for this year. After the season he will receive salary arbitration. That should turn out to be about two to three million. After that he is a free agent. Are GMs really not willing to take a 3.5 million dollar risk on Pena?

Pena has made a real fall from grace starting with the signing of J.D. Drew. Many people wanted him to replace Trot in right. That went out the window when they signed Drew and apparently so did Pena's skills. I really don't get what happened either. His ISOP, BB%, K%, BABIP, LD%, and GB% are all well in the range of his normal stats. Even though that is the case, he has seen his AVG, OBP, and SLUG significantly down. To his credit, his numbers on the road are pretty darn good, .313/.361/.612. It is odd though, generally right handed power hitters thrive in Fenway. Maybe Pena is the exception that proves the rule.

My last point is exactly why i am so shocked. If a man can post an OPS approaching 1.000 in about 75 plate appearance, why wouldn't you take a chance? He has shown flashes of brilliance and has a body of record to prove it. He is a 40 home run hitter in the making. How could the White Sox or the Nationals not put a claim in. Both teams are known to like him and both are going no where. Neither should be sweating the $ 3.5 million. Maybe they are they are just being really smart. With Kielty now in the minors, presumably to take Pena's spot, they know the Sox need to get rid of him. Maybe they are just waiting for them to DFA. Even still, they will still have to pay for him. If someone can explain this to me, I would love to hear it.