EqA Rates

I looked at RARP the other day, so i figured why not keep with the SABR theme and look at EqA for the Red Sox. For those how don't know what EqA is take a look here. Basically it stands for Equivalent Average and it measures offensive production per out.

Red Sox
Jason Varitek - .260
Kevin Youkilis - .282
Dustin Pedroia - .282
Mike Lowell - .289
Julio Lugo - .226
J.D. Drew - .255
Coco Crisp - .248
Manny Ramirez - .289
David Ortiz - .327

League Average
C - .244
1b - .276
2b - .260
3b - .268
SS - .256
Rf - .273
Cf - .265
Lf - .270
Dh - .262

Six of the nine starters are above average, while three are below. However, Julio Lugo is the only player significantly below average hitter on the team. Papi is the only player significantly above average, to no ones surprise. Honestly, these numbers are a lot more encouraging than the RARP numbers. Looking at these, I can understand the reason why the Sox have the fourth best offense.

Tejeda Promoted

Just a quick note here, Oscar Tejeda was recently promoted to Single A Lowell. If you don't know much about him, i did a write up on him here. Since being promoted, Tejeda has hit .389/.405/.500 in 36 ABs. His rates aren't all that good, but i'm not going to write about them. For now I'm going to just be excited for this promising young 17 year old.

Consistently Average

When you describe people, it is very infrequent for "average" to be a compliment. In terms of baseball, it is very much so. It is extreme difficult to find someone that can give you consistently average performances, year after year. Thankfully for the Red Sox, we have someone like that in Tim Wakefield. I give Tim a lot of grieve, but my main issue is the Doub Mirabelli factor. He is truly a special pitcher and I am becoming more and more convinced that he could pitch till he is 45. To illustrate how consistent he has been, look at his ERA+ and IP since joining the Red Sox.

1995 - 195.3 - 163
1996 - 211.7 - 100
1997 - 201.3 - 110
1998 - 216 - 101
1999 - 140 - 100
2000 - 159.3 - 91
2001 - 168.7 - 116
2002 - 163.3 - 157
2003 - 202.3 - 115
2004 - 188.3 - 100
2005 - 225.3 - 106
2006 - 140 - 100
2007 - 157.3 - 104

I challenge anyone out there to find 3 other pitchers in the American League that have similar or better numbers than those above over the same span. Wakefield will never win a Cy Young, but that's not what he is here for. He is an innings eater, and a really good one at that. For these reasons and many more, I would be extremely shocked if Wake is not back with the team next season.

RARP ratings

Runs Above Replacement players is a nifty little stat that Baseball Prospectus has created. It allows you to see how many more runs you are producing than a replacement level player would produce. Here are how the Red Sox rank in comparison to other players at their positions.

Jason Varitek - 7th (14.6)
Kevin Youkilis - 15th (19)
Dustin Pedroia - 10th (23.1)
Mike Lowell - 7th (25.6)
Julio Lugo - 32nd (1.2)
Manny Ramirez - 10th (27.2)
Coco Crisp - 24th (7.8)J.D. Drew - 29th (6.8)
David Ortiz - 1st (43.8)

Not all too surprising. Of coarse, Papi is the best DH in all of baseball. Even when his power is down, he still has an top 5 EqA and EqR. He is a truly amazing hitter and should be appreciated as such. Youkilis has been great, but he plays such an offensive heavy position that he was bound to be the middle of the pack. For all the talk about Lugo and Crisp turning their seasons around, they still rank pretty low on the list. Manny and Lowell have both given the team very solid years and with Papi have made up for the short comings in Drew, Crisp, and Lugo. These stats don't shock me. What shocks me is that the Sox are 4th in the league in scoring. I think it will be hard for them to keep up their offensive pace if these are the numbers they are producing.

Draft Review: Brock Huntzinger

Brock Huntzinger is the bright young star from Pendleton, Indiana. He slipped to the 3rd round, but many believed he could have gone higher. He had intended to pitch for Indiana University next year, before signing with the Sox. The coach of IU thought very highly of Brock saying "he is one of the top pitchers in the Midwest."

Brock is one of the few players drafted that have already got his career underway. He has made 3 appearances for the Red Sox GCL team. So far, in 5 innings, he has 4 strikeouts and walked none. He has allowed 2 runs and 4 hits over that period. The only stat that you should pay attention to in the GCL is walks and strike outs, basically command. Command is something that will transcend levels and is important to keep. These pitchers will be practicing pitches and often will be up and down. Keep that in mind when looking at players below AA.

He is a scouts dream. He stand 6'3" 215 lbs and can afford to put weight on. He is an extremely athletic kid that was great both ways in High School. He will be a pitcher for the Red Sox and has some great treats to start with. He has a smooth delivery, that will require very little tweaking. Because of this delivery, he has little trouble going deep into game and has shown an ability to bounce on short rest. He has a solid fastball, resting around 91 MPH, with above average secondary pitches. His curveball is has been call "excellent and his slider is developing. It is a new pitch to him, so with time it could become great.

In looking at Huntzinger, it is important to keep in mind he is only 19 years old. Like all draft picks, he is probably more than 2 years away from anything. In my opinion, he is the most talented player draft. Yes, more talented than Middlebrooks. I'm expecting a lot from him, I'll keep everyone informed about him.

Draft Review: Austin Bailey

Lets start somewhere in the middle and work my way out. You probably haven't heard much about Bailey, since he was a 16th round selection out of college. He was most definitely not a 16th round talent, however. He has the abilities to become a really strong pitcher. Most teams shied away because of sign ability. Baseball America had him ranked the 176th best player entering the draft, but he slipped all the way to the 504th pick. According to PGcrosscheck.com, Bailey was the 115th best prospect.

The scouting report is he has a fastball ranging from 88-93 MPH fastball. He sports a change-up and a curveball. Both pitches have a lot of development needed to become solid secondary pitches. The curveball appears to be the further developed pitched, said to have "depth and tight rotation." As many kids out of High School, he lacks the mentality of a major league pitcher. He likes to challenge hitters with his fastball and lacks the necessary switch of pace in his secondary pitches. He is currently 6'1" 195 lbs. and has little room to grow. He will probably bulk up a tad, but the fastball will probably never top 94. His delivery is extremely similar to that of Jeremy Bonderman. It is never a bad thing being compared to Bonderman.

He is said to be a tough, aggressive player. Sounds very similar to a pitcher that the Sox drafted out of High School, Michael Bowden. While Bowden has a different approach to pitching, both were confident pitchers straight out of High School. Don't be shocked if Bailey has success in A ball next year and we start hearing his name on major outlets, like Bowden. Great pick for the Sox. The price, $285,000, was completely in the realm of justification.

Pitching Match-ups

Here is how the pitching match-ups look from here on in.

Beckett
8/24 @ White Sox
8/29 @ Yankees
9/3 vs. Blue Jays
9/8 @ Orioles
9/14 vs. Yankees
9/19 @ Blue Jays
9/26 vs. A's

Matsuzaka
8/28 @ Yankees
9/2 vs. Orioles
9/7 @ Orioles
9/12 vs. Devil Rays
9/18 @ Toronto
9/25 vs. A's
9/30 vs. Twins

Schilling
8/24 @ White Sox
8/30 @ Yankees
9/4 vs. Blue Jays
9/9 @ Baltimore
9/15 vs. Yankees
9/21 @ Devil Rays
9/27 vs. Twins

Wakefield
8/25 @ White Sox
8/31 vs. Orioles
9/5 vs. Blue Jays
9/10 vs. Devil Rays
9/16 vs. Yankees
9/22 @ Devil Rays
9/28 vs. Twins

Tavarez/Lester
8/26 @ White Sox
9/1 vs. Orioles
9/6 @ Orioles
9/11 vs. Devil Rays
9/17 @ Blue Jays
9/23 @ Devil Rays
9/29 vs. Twins

Pedroia

As much as i hate to say it, I was completely wrong about Dustin Pedroia. I was completely convinced that he would be a lackluster major leaguer, but I am flip-flopping. His numbers have been great this year and his defense has been a great surprised. From everything i heard, Pedroia had below-average range and a weak arm. That has turned out not to be true. He has been extremely steady and solid. His speed is as advertised, but that can easily be forgiven.

So whats so great about Pedroia? Almost all his rates are stellar. Great BB%, K%, LD%, GB%, and BABIP. Those translate to great AVG/OBP/SLG. I am fully convinced that he will have an OPS around .800 for the rest of his career. For a second baseman, that is something that is special. So hear is my apology, I am sorry Dustin. You are a hell of a lot better player than i thought you could be.

Missed weekend

Well, i apparently missed a lot this weekend. So here are my takes on the major goings on.

• We went 2-2 vs. the Angels this weekend. I'll take that. Apparently we should have won 3 our of the 4 games if it wasn't for Gagne, but what can you do. I am really getting sick of hearing Gagne blew it but the more i think about it the more i relax. My sources tell me Gagne has been looking good and has some nasty movement on the change-up. If that is true, the results will come along. Also, Delcarmen struggled as well. If Gagne wasn't here he would be in a bigger situation and probably struggling similarly. All and all, splits against really good teams are acceptable.
• Buccholz made his debut and got the win in the effort. I really can't speak much to his game. I see his line wasn't an awful one, at least when you consider it was his first start, but for a rookie the line can be misleading. He will be back up here in a couple of weeks and i'll make a much better analysis on him.
• Pena is gone and Kielty is in. Not a huge Kielty fan, so that's really all i have to say about that. Pena leaving town is the bigger news. He is now with the Nationals in exchange for a PTBNL. I'm hearing that Chris Carter is that player. I don't really understand that since Carter is owned by the D-Backs, but these PTBNL trades are confusing. Carter is a nice player that can flat out hit. A little old for a prospect and not a great defender, but he is very similar to a Jack Cust.
• Everyone knows a hate Dougie, so how happy was i to see he was put on the DL. He has a strained right calf which shouldn't keep him out too long. In his stead, the Sox promoted Kevin Cash. I don't understand it at all. Kottaras has caught a knockleball, is younger, and a better hitter. This is the type of thing i hate about Theo. They have better options than they use. That gives me a great idea about a thread. We will see how that progresses.

So, that's the weekend i missed. The lead is down to 4 but no need to get freaked. The Sox are fine.

Jimmy Fund

Just a quick note. Today is the NESN/WEEI Jimmy Fund Radio-Telethon. It is a great cause and anyone that can make a donation should. The number to call is 877-738-1234. Otherwise, you can go to jimmyfund.org and check things out. The goal for the day is $3 M and I think they will get it.