The Red Sox Outsider

New Home

2007-10-10T08:15:00.000-05:00

Sorry guys, but i got a new home. Go check me out at Sox on Deck. I'll be covering the Sox farm system.

Sizing Up the Sox

2007-10-02T20:39:00.000-05:00

I looked at the Halo's pitchers, lets look at the Sox pitchers and how they have fared against the Angels.

Josh Beckett vs.
Orlando Cabrera - .281/.286/.428 (35 PAs)
Vlad Guerrero - .217/.379/.301 (29 PAs)
Garrett Anderson - .400/.500/.600 (12 PAs)
Career ERA vs. Angels - 2.16

Dice-K Matsuzaka vs.
Never Faced

Curt Schilling vs.
Vlad Guerrero - .286/.328/.635 (67 PAs)
Orlando Cabrera - .341/.356/.523 (45 PAs)
Chone Figgins - .294/.294/.647 (17 PAs)
Career ERA vs. Angels - 3.67

Beckett has owned the Angels. You might be saying "those lines aren't very good. Why didn't you pick people with better lines?" Well, those were the best lines. Only Anderson had an above .800 OPS. Daisuke has never faces the Angels so i have no data for you. Schilling has been hit solidly by Vlad and Cabrera. They have been the Angels best hitters all year and i would think they would continue that in this series.

Sizing Up the Halo's

2007-10-02T17:45:00.001-05:00

Playoff Time, wahoooo. Lets take a look at how the Halo's pitchers have fared against the Red Sox in their careers.

John Lackey vs.
Manny Ramirez - .435/.581/1.087 (31 PAs)
David Ortiz - .385/.467/.808 (30 PAs)
J.D. Drew - .455/.500/.727 (12 PAs)
Overall ERA against Boston - 6.27

Kelvim Escobar vs.
Jason Varitek - .333/.500/.333 (28 PAs)
Coco Crisp - .357/.471/.500 (17 PAs)
Julio Lugo - .571/.600/1.000 (10 PAs)
Overall ERA against Boston - 4.64

Jered Weaver vs.
Kevin Youkilis - .333/.385/.583 (13 PAs)
David Ortiz - .500/.583/1.100 (12 PAs)
Julio Lugo - .500/.500/1.000 (8 PAs)
Overall ERA against Boston- 4.70

What jumps out at me the most is Lackey. He is going to pitch twice, and is expected to be the ace. Looking at his numbers, I'd be scared if i was an Angels fan. He has got rocked by the Sox. Manny has owned Lackey, so I'm anticipating a great series by him. Escobar has had some success against the Red Sox, but is dealing with injury. I think the Angels would be happy if he can give them 6 innings and 3 runs. The Sox haven't seen Weaver much so I can't say what i expect. If experience is a factor, I'd take Schilling over Weaver 9 times out of 10 in Game 3.

RSO's Sox Prospects List

2007-09-25T15:52:00.000-05:00

The season is over for minor leaguers, so it is about time to make my rankings. I will do this again after the major league season is over, but I'm too tense right now. I need something to get my mind off the last week of the regular season.

1. Clay Buchholz - What hasn't been said about this kid? He has command of 4 plus pitches, has solid mechanics, and has great composure. While he is not going to throw no-hitters every time out there, he does have he ability to be an ace.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury - If you are a frequent reader of this site, you'd know that I am not Ellsbury's biggest fan. That being said, he is as much of a sure thing as anyone on this list. You can't teach his speed and defensive abilities. He does have to make strides in his approach at the plate. His swing as big holes, mainly in the upper-half of the zone. If he can learn to get the head of the bat on that high cheese, he will be an above-average hitter. To be frank, that doesn't matter, though. He brings so many things to the game, it is difficult to dislike him.

3. Michael Bowden - Am i going to chalk for everyone? Well, it doesn't matter. These guys should be 1,2,3. Bowden could be great and has as much potential as Buchholz. The reason why he is so further down is the age gap. Bowden is more than two years younger than Buchholz. It should be expected that he is less developed than his counter-part. He has a dominate fastball, that can hit 96 on the gun, to go along with an above average slider and curve. His change-up has been making strides as well. If you are looking at a prospects number you need to keep in context age. Is the player above the expected age, below, or age appropriate. Bowden is below average age, and that is why his numbers are impressive. A sub-4 FIP for a 20 year old in AA is pretty darn impressive. He also has over a 2/1 strikeouts to walk ratio, making him look legit. Expect Bowden to start at AA but make the jump to AAA if he has a good first couple starts. Don't be shocked if he is getting Buchholz-esque hype come 2009.

4. Lars Anderson - This guy is a complete beast. Much like Bowden, he is doing well above where he should be at. Drafted out of High School, this was his first year in professional baseball. He did nothing short of what was expected. He posted a .827 OPS in Greenvile before moving to Lancaster for the last several weeks of the season. While at Lancaster, he killed the ball posting a .975 OPS. If there was a concern about Lars, it would have to be his lack of power. He only hit 11 HRs all season. I, on the other hand, am not worried. Power can be developed and Lars will gain weight before he makes the majors. I fully believe he could be a 30 HR player some day. He plays decent 1st base and i expect his abilities to increase. Most experts will not have Lars this high but, because he is the only corner infielder even close to making an impact, he has to be in this slot. He is still at least 2 full seasons away, but probably 3 full season.

5. Jed Lowrie - I would have never thought this guy would have been this high prior to 2008, but that is why I am no expert. Lowrie was an offensive machine this season, while playing for Pawtucket and Portland. As a shortstop, he was able to slug .500 at Pawtucket and.501 at Portland. He didn't get on base at a crazy rate, .350 and .408, but the .408 is very good. The reason why the .06 drop may be a cause of a 4.4% increase in K% and 9.6% decrease in BB%. Generally, Lowrie has good patience. He has an uncanny ability to keep the ball off the ground, which is never a bad thing. His defense isn't great, but they have him out of position. Lowrie should be a second baseman. I think Lowrie is the best trading chip the Sox have in their farm system. They will not get rid of any of the aforementioned players, so i wouldn't be surprised if Lowrie is shipped off between now and this time next year. He will make a good second baseman for someone in two years.

6. Justin Masterson - Lots of hype around this kid, not as much truth to it as many might think. I highly doubt he will ever be a starter in the majors, which is why i am not high on him. He, however, can be a very effective reliever someday. Working out of the pen, he should be able to get his velocity around 94. If that is the case, his sinker will be nasty. I don't like his motion,either. It is pretty violent and unnatural. I don't claim to be an injury expert, but he is someone i'm looking at. There is a good chance that by the end of 2008, he will be setting up for Paps.

7. Brandon Moss - I wasn't sure where i wanted to put Moss. I think he is less of a talent than the next couple players to be listed, but i am 95% sure he will be what i think he'll be. I can't say that about the next people. Moss is a good hitter. He has shown at just about every level he can swing the bat. Give him a full season in the Majors, he will post an OPS+ around 100. If you don't believe me, i'll take any and all bets. That being sad, i will also take any bets who thinks he can post an OPS+ above 110. In my eyes, he is perfectly projectable as average. Now that he is learning to play first, i see him being with the Sox for awhile as the 4th outfielder/utility guy. You can't say that about everyone, so that's why he is at #7.

8. Oscar Tejeda - Is he the next Hanley Ramirez? Probably not, but he might be. How many 17 year olds can put up a .347 OBP in A ball. I'll tell you, not many. He is very young, so nothing is a certain. he could fizzle out just as easy as anybody, but i really like him. He is a little shaking as a SS, which might lead him to be a CFer, but his range has never been a question mark. He has speed coming out of his ears. Weight gain should be a top priority for Tejeda. He has the swing for HRs but he just doesn't have the power right now. Big potential but big risk. Keep your eyes on him.

9. Nick Hagadone - The only member of the 2007 draft to make the list, Hadagone has impressed in his short stint at Lowell. He was able to post a 1.85 ERA and a 4.13 K/BB rate. His ERA is stunted by his debut where he let up all 5 of his earned runs. I was a little skeptical about putting him on so early into his career, but he is so clearly the best lefty the Sox have it is impossible to leave him off. He has the ability to hit 98 on the gun, however 95 is a much more realistic goal. I wouldn't be shocked if we see him sooner rather than later. College closers tend to have a quicker path to the bigs than most. I'd say he could be a regular in the Sox pen by mid-2009.

10 - Che-Hsuan Lin - With the last pick of the top 10, i'm going pure upside. Lin could be the best prospect in the Sox organization come 2010. He has as much talent as anyone on this list, but is terrible young. The Taiwan import had little success in his short stint with Lowell, but did show flashes of his talent. He is an athletic centerfielder, that has great range and an above-average arm. Lin does a good job of getting the bat on the ball and has good plate discipline. If you are not familar with Lin, it is about time you get to know him. I would like to see the Sox start him in Greenville, but i doubt they move him from Lowell. Like Tejeda, huge upside but huge risk.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Kalish, Will Middlebrooks, Kris Johnson, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Dent.

I would really like to hear your feedback. I spend a lot of time following these guys via online, but have little actual game experience with many of these players. If you have seen something that i didn't mention, or just flat out disagree with me, i'd love to hear it. I plan on revisiting this topic sometime in winter, so get your opinions in now.

Winter League

2007-09-20T15:47:00.000-05:00

Just a quick hit here. The rosters for Winter league have came out and the Sox have 6 players participating. Those players are Ryan Kalish, Daniel Bard, Jason Place, Brandon Moss, Jimmy James, and Argenis Diaz. Kalish and Moss are the big names their. Kalish is a 19 year old kid that did great in Lowell. Sadly, he got hurt and missed a good chunk of the season. Moss is going to practice first. If he makes strides, their is no doubt he is on the 25-man roster come 2008. This could be huge for Place and Bard. They both have tons of talent but have played extremely poorly in the minors. Diaz and James are nothing to get all that excited about, sorry guys. I'll keep you posted on those players as the seasons get underway.

Daisuke is Struggling

2007-09-11T16:23:00.000-05:00

Is it any surprise that Dice-K is having a rough go at it? No, of coarse not. He leads the AL in PAPs. This is his first season in a 5-man rotation. Players are starting to adjust to his pitching style. Finally, he walks people like it's his job. Until he gets better control, he is doomed to struggle. If he can't turn it around, I find it hard to believe the Red Sox will get out of the ALDS.

Sizing up the Jays

2007-09-02T15:26:00.000-05:00

It was pretty successful last time, so why not do it again. Here is a look at both the Starters for the Jays and the Sox and who they struggle against.

Jesse Litsch vs.
David Ortiz - .667/.667/1.000 (3)
Alex Cora - .333/.333/.667 (3)
Doug Mirabelli - .333/.333/.667 (3)

Roy Halladay vs.
David Ortiz - .304/.342/.609 (73)
Mike Lowell - .353/.389/.882 (18)
J.D. Drew - .400/.500/.400 (12)

Shaun Marcum vs.
Mike Lowell - .375/.375/.750 (8)
Manny Ramirez - .500/.571/1.500 (7)
J.D. Drew - .250/.400/.500 (5)

Looking at those, I would expect Papi and Drew to both have a good series. Drew could really use it. Papi has been on a tear anyways, so it is just a plus that there are nice pitching match-ups. I wouldn't be surprised if Tito give DP or Lugo the day off tomorrow and start Cora.

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs.
Alexis Rios - .375/.500/.500 (10)
Aaron Hill - .375/.444/.875 (9)
Troy Glaus - .667/.667/1.333 (6)

Josh Beckett vs.
Lyle Overbay - .350/.500/.400 (26)
Vernon Wells - .381/.435/1.000 (23)
Aaron Hill - .333/.368/.556 (19)

Curt Schilling vs.
Vernon Wells - .438/.444/.563 (18)
Frank Thomas - .625/.556/.625 (9)
Troy Glaus - .429/.429/.571 (7)

Man, does Glaus and Wells have some great numbers. These are suppose to be the aces of the Sox staff, so this series will be interesting. The youngsters pick it up against the O's, what will the vets do? Magic # is at 20, wahoooooo!

First Set Of Call-Ups

2007-09-01T10:34:00.000-05:00

Today marks the first day of September, and that means the rosters expand. The Sox have been plagued with injuries, so this couldn't have came at a better time. As of this point they have brought up 5 players, but expect more after Pawtucket's season raps up. So far, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, Royce Clayton, and Bryan Corey have been called up. With Manny, Drew, and Kielty ailing, I would guess we see a lot of Ellsbury and Moss over the next week. Buchholz will be the starter tonight for the Sox, since Tavarez had to pitch last night. Clayton is here for insurance and Corey is for depth in the pen. I wouldn't count on seeing much of either player.

Hansen Sighting

2007-08-30T18:23:00.000-05:00

I think it is about time for a Craig Hansen update. The 2005 first rounder was a promising reliever when first draft. He was rushed to the majors and was less than successful. To get Hansen back on track, the Red Sox have kept him in the minors all season. It started off very rough, posting an ERA north of 5 for the first 3 month's of the season. Most Red Sox fans have wrote her off, opting to root for fellow 2005 draftee Manny Delcarmen. It might be about time to start taking Hansen serious again because he has coming on very strong of late.

In Hansen's last 10 outings, he has posted an ERA of 0.54 over 16.2 innings. Over the same span, he has 23 strike outs and walking only 5. From what I am hearing, he has rediscovered the slider that made him special at St. Johns. He is still only 23 years old, so it is way to early to write him off. He will almost certainly see time in Boston as a September call-up. No matter what the results are, he is the most talented reliever in the Sox farm system. Patience is never more of a virtue than when judging relievers. The variance from one year to the next is crazy.

Sizing up the O's

2007-08-30T12:49:00.000-05:00

The up coming series against the O's may end up being an important series. With this Yankee series looking all but over, it is going to be important that the Sox atleast win this weekend set. It appears the Wakefield, Tavarez, and Lester will be the starters for the series. Here are the O's that each pitcher should be scared of and why. The number in the parenthesis is plate appearances.

Tim Wakefield vs.
Miguel Tejeda - .304/.324/.594 (72)
Ramon Hernandez - .344/.400/.594 (35)
Kevin Millar - .474/.524/.947 (21)

Julian Tavarez vs.
Aubrey Huff - .417/.417/.583 (12)
Kevin Millar - .333/.500/.778 (12)
Nick Markakis - .400/.400/.800 (10)

Jon Lester vs.
Ramon Hernandez - .500/.667/.500 (3)
Melvin Mora - 1.000/1.000/1.000 (3)
Corey Patterson - .333/.333/1.333 (3)

Lester hasn't faced anyone more that 3 times, so his numbers are kind of fluke. He pitched an awful game against them, which inflated all the stats. 3 plate appearances just isn't enough to show a trend. Wakefield has seen the O's a lot and with some marginal success. For some reason, our old friend Kevin Millar is a huge fan of facing Wake. He subscribes to the "if its high, let it fly. If it's low, let it go." theory of hitting the knockler. Read more about that in this weeks Sports Illustrated.

The important of this series is subject to argument. I, personally, thinks it's very important. We can either start printing the banner or worrying about the Yanks. If the Sox pitchers can keep this hitters in check, there is a good chance that the former will prevail. I'm just excited to not be playing the Yankees.

A Man Alone

2007-08-29T13:01:00.000-05:00

I must be insane. My relationship with J.D. Drew is very abusive one. I know i should leave, but I'm scared about my life after him. It was love at first sight when i say the Red Sox signed Drew. It was like i was living on cloud nine. "Wow, Drew!," i said, "he is the perfect replacement for Trot." How wrong i was. Drew has done nothing to warrant my excitement. He is hitting .259/.359/.39o, but the SABR stats are even more worrisome. It isn't just his hitting either. His defense has proven to be less than advertised. To show his fall, look at his current stats and last years.

2007
EqA - .255
EqR - 47
WARP3 - 3.1
OPS+ - 97
RC/27 - 4.9
Batting WS - 6.7
Fielding WS - 1.9
Rate2 - 91
FRAA - -8

2006
EqA - .299
EqR - 89
WARP3 - 8.5
OPS+ - 125
RC/27 - 7.6
Batting WS - 18.5
Fielding WS - 3.1
Rate2 - 112
FRAA - 12

At this point i should note that many people view last year as a down year for Drew. Every stat i just showed clearly explains why he is a disappointment. He hasn't improved anything. In many stats, he went from a good hitter to a below average hitter. I guess that begs the question, why has this happened? That is a lot more difficult to explain that one would think. When trying to explain this i looked at his rates and what i found was rather shocking. Besides the power rates, nothing makes sense.

2007
K% - 18.5%
BB% - 14.8
LD% - 17%
GB% - 48%
BABIP - .316
ISOP - .131

2006
K% - 17.8%
BB% - 15%
LD% - 18%
GB% - 47%
BABIP - .326
ISOP - .251

Yes, every rate is down. But none of those are noticeably down, besides ISOP. Changes like that can be attributed to many different things and the best argument would not be a decline in talent. So, we are right back to where we were before i showed the stats. What is the problem? He is hitting lefties extremely poorly this season, but it is not like he was ever Babe Ruth against them to beginning with. League change? Maybe, he hit his best during interleague play. There has to be something to the familiarity or hitters with pitchers. Family issues? Yes, his young child has been sick. I really can't speak to this one. He seems like the kind of guy that can play through something like this, but he isn't a robot. I'm sure it has effected him to some extent. The new home ballpark? I doubt it. He needs to learn how to hit to the opposite field and use the monster, that's why his BABIP is 50 points lower at home, but overall the numbers are pretty close.

I give up. I can't find any specific thing that is wrong with the guy. Clearly, he is not the same player. But to why? I can't answer. Your guess is as good as mine. What i can say for a fact is, he is as talented as anyone on this team. Will it ever manifest itself on the field? I really hope so. Many people don't like his attitude, but the guy is just odd. He doesn't show emotion, that doesn't mean he doesn't have them. From here on in, me and Drew are on a break. I hope we can rekindle our love sooner rather than later.

More Promotions

2007-08-29T09:35:00.000-05:00

I wrote earlier that Tejeda was promoted to Lowell, now he is joined by some of his old teammates. Both Ryan Dent and Che-Hsuan Lin were promoted to Lowell from the Gulf Coast League. There is only a handful of games left, so this move is extremely minor in terms of this year. That being said, this could be big for next season. My guess is, they did this so these players can start somewhere higher than low A. It is very likely that they will start the season at Lancaster and Greenville. If that is the case, we will truly get to see what we have in this teenagers. I'll keep you posted on their success in Lowell.

Roster Expansion

2007-08-27T17:29:00.000-05:00

As far as I know, on September 1st major league teams are allowed to expand their roster by 15 players. That means, potentially, all players on the 40 man roster can be called up. I believe as a prerequisite, you must be on the 40 man roster prior to the first. So lets look at who is currently on the roster but not active.

Pitcher
Craig Breslow
Clay Buccholz
Matt Clement *
Brendon Donnelly *
Daniel Haigwood
Devern Hansack
Craig Hansen
Kyle Jackson
Jon Lester
Edgar Martinez
David Pauley

Positional Player
Doug Mirabelli
George Kottaras
Jacoby Ellsbury
Brandon Moss

* 60-day DL

Out of these players, there are very few players i would be shocked if they got the call. I highly doubt Kyle Jackson and Daniel Haigwood. They are both struggling at AA Portland and have very little upside. Edgar Martinez and David Pauley might not get the call either, mainly for there uselessness. Neither are high upside or lefties, making them expendable. Of the positional players, George Kottaras will probably be the only player not called up. They don't need 4 catchers and they would rather start his arbitration clock next year. By my best guess, that would put the Sox at anywhere between 11 and 7 call ups. Makes a lot of sense for a team with this large of a lead.

Notable none call-ups
Chris Carter
Jed Lowrie
Justin Masterson
Bobby Scales
Royce Clayton
Travis Hughes
Bryan Corey
Abe Alvarez

This is where I get confused. From my understanding, these players can not be called up because they are not on the 40 man roster. If this fact is true, than the only way they can get called up is if they make some roster moves. Once again, i can only see Daniel Haigwood and Kyle Jackson being shafted off the roster. My guess they would fill one of those spots with Lowrie. He is a promising young prospect and would be the only infield call-up. Good chance Chris Carter or Travis Hughes would be the options for the other spot. Carter was the player the Red Sox got in return for Pena. This guy can flat out hit, so he could be a very valuable as a pinch hitter. Problem is he can't play defense and has little speed. Hughes is the closer at Pawtucket and is having a career year. With a sub-2 ERA and a low WHIP, he makes a lot of sense. The problem is, he is 29 years old and has just about no upside. Masterson would be nice, but why start his arbitration clock this year. best bet is to wait and see where he is next spring.

I'll write about who they actually call up in a couple of days, but for now those are my predictions. A team like the Red Sox in their position will probably bring up at least 7 players. They have a big lead and several players they would like to have a look at or give a rest. September call-ups often make a bigger impact of teams than the average fan would expect.

Draft Review: Drake Britton

2007-08-26T13:07:00.000-05:00

This might end up being the steal of the draft for the Red Sox. Drake Britton was the 714th pick in this year draft, right out of Tombal (TX) High School. This young left-hander built up quite a reputation pitching in the heart of Texas. As a junoir, he posted a record of 9-2 with an ERA of 1.36. He also managed to strike out 84 batters in 60 innings. Extremely mature for his age, he stands 6'2" 200 lbs. Scouts believe he could use to bulk up a little bit, but he is very projectable.

The scouting report is pretty exciting. His fastball consistently sits in the low 90s. What makes him special is the outstanding curveball he has. Scouts have referred to it as "flithy". His change-up is not as far along as the other pitches, but with time could develop. He has great command of all his pitches, especially the fastball and curve. To go along with his pitches, he has an extremely deceptive motion that makes it difficult for hitters to catch up with.

Signing for $700,000, this 23rd rounder seems to be a high risk high reward type of player. What is often left out of baseball talks are the players are human beings. It just so happens that Britton is a very good one, at that. He has spent time with special needs children in his community, along with other charitable efforts. Drake appears to be a good guy, so for that reason alone i'm rooting for him. Being a good guy never hurts in the world of baseball. ETA is 2012 for this kid, and that sounds about right. But don't be surprise if he comes along faster with the lack of lefties in the organization. Outside of Hagadone, Lester, and Johnson there aren't many, which might lead the Sox to rush him along. Best guess, he starts the year in Lowell and will go from there.

EqA Rates

2007-08-26T10:41:00.000-05:00

I looked at RARP the other day, so i figured why not keep with the SABR theme and look at EqA for the Red Sox. For those how don't know what EqA is take a look here. Basically it stands for Equivalent Average and it measures offensive production per out.

Red Sox
Jason Varitek - .260
Kevin Youkilis - .282
Dustin Pedroia - .282
Mike Lowell - .289
Julio Lugo - .226
J.D. Drew - .255
Coco Crisp - .248
Manny Ramirez - .289
David Ortiz - .327

League Average
C - .244
1b - .276
2b - .260
3b - .268
SS - .256
Rf - .273
Cf - .265
Lf - .270
Dh - .262

Six of the nine starters are above average, while three are below. However, Julio Lugo is the only player significantly below average hitter on the team. Papi is the only player significantly above average, to no ones surprise. Honestly, these numbers are a lot more encouraging than the RARP numbers. Looking at these, I can understand the reason why the Sox have the fourth best offense.

Tejeda Promoted

2007-08-25T16:30:00.001-05:00

Just a quick note here, Oscar Tejeda was recently promoted to Single A Lowell. If you don't know much about him, i did a write up on him here. Since being promoted, Tejeda has hit .389/.405/.500 in 36 ABs. His rates aren't all that good, but i'm not going to write about them. For now I'm going to just be excited for this promising young 17 year old.

Consistently Average

2007-08-25T15:58:00.000-05:00

When you describe people, it is very infrequent for "average" to be a compliment. In terms of baseball, it is very much so. It is extreme difficult to find someone that can give you consistently average performances, year after year. Thankfully for the Red Sox, we have someone like that in Tim Wakefield. I give Tim a lot of grieve, but my main issue is the Doub Mirabelli factor. He is truly a special pitcher and I am becoming more and more convinced that he could pitch till he is 45. To illustrate how consistent he has been, look at his ERA+ and IP since joining the Red Sox.

1995 - 195.3 - 163
1996 - 211.7 - 100
1997 - 201.3 - 110
1998 - 216 - 101
1999 - 140 - 100
2000 - 159.3 - 91
2001 - 168.7 - 116
2002 - 163.3 - 157
2003 - 202.3 - 115
2004 - 188.3 - 100
2005 - 225.3 - 106
2006 - 140 - 100
2007 - 157.3 - 104

I challenge anyone out there to find 3 other pitchers in the American League that have similar or better numbers than those above over the same span. Wakefield will never win a Cy Young, but that's not what he is here for. He is an innings eater, and a really good one at that. For these reasons and many more, I would be extremely shocked if Wake is not back with the team next season.

RARP ratings

2007-08-24T18:14:00.000-05:00

Runs Above Replacement players is a nifty little stat that Baseball Prospectus has created. It allows you to see how many more runs you are producing than a replacement level player would produce. Here are how the Red Sox rank in comparison to other players at their positions.

Jason Varitek - 7th (14.6)
Kevin Youkilis - 15th (19)
Dustin Pedroia - 10th (23.1)
Mike Lowell - 7th (25.6)
Julio Lugo - 32nd (1.2)
Manny Ramirez - 10th (27.2)
Coco Crisp - 24th (7.8)J.D. Drew - 29th (6.8)
David Ortiz - 1st (43.8)

Not all too surprising. Of coarse, Papi is the best DH in all of baseball. Even when his power is down, he still has an top 5 EqA and EqR. He is a truly amazing hitter and should be appreciated as such. Youkilis has been great, but he plays such an offensive heavy position that he was bound to be the middle of the pack. For all the talk about Lugo and Crisp turning their seasons around, they still rank pretty low on the list. Manny and Lowell have both given the team very solid years and with Papi have made up for the short comings in Drew, Crisp, and Lugo. These stats don't shock me. What shocks me is that the Sox are 4th in the league in scoring. I think it will be hard for them to keep up their offensive pace if these are the numbers they are producing.

Draft Review: Brock Huntzinger

2007-08-24T16:20:00.000-05:00

Brock Huntzinger is the bright young star from Pendleton, Indiana. He slipped to the 3rd round, but many believed he could have gone higher. He had intended to pitch for Indiana University next year, before signing with the Sox. The coach of IU thought very highly of Brock saying "he is one of the top pitchers in the Midwest."

Brock is one of the few players drafted that have already got his career underway. He has made 3 appearances for the Red Sox GCL team. So far, in 5 innings, he has 4 strikeouts and walked none. He has allowed 2 runs and 4 hits over that period. The only stat that you should pay attention to in the GCL is walks and strike outs, basically command. Command is something that will transcend levels and is important to keep. These pitchers will be practicing pitches and often will be up and down. Keep that in mind when looking at players below AA.

He is a scouts dream. He stand 6'3" 215 lbs and can afford to put weight on. He is an extremely athletic kid that was great both ways in High School. He will be a pitcher for the Red Sox and has some great treats to start with. He has a smooth delivery, that will require very little tweaking. Because of this delivery, he has little trouble going deep into game and has shown an ability to bounce on short rest. He has a solid fastball, resting around 91 MPH, with above average secondary pitches. His curveball is has been call "excellent and his slider is developing. It is a new pitch to him, so with time it could become great.

In looking at Huntzinger, it is important to keep in mind he is only 19 years old. Like all draft picks, he is probably more than 2 years away from anything. In my opinion, he is the most talented player draft. Yes, more talented than Middlebrooks. I'm expecting a lot from him, I'll keep everyone informed about him.

Draft Review: Austin Bailey

2007-08-24T14:49:00.000-05:00

Lets start somewhere in the middle and work my way out. You probably haven't heard much about Bailey, since he was a 16th round selection out of college. He was most definitely not a 16th round talent, however. He has the abilities to become a really strong pitcher. Most teams shied away because of sign ability. Baseball America had him ranked the 176th best player entering the draft, but he slipped all the way to the 504th pick. According to PGcrosscheck.com, Bailey was the 115th best prospect.

The scouting report is he has a fastball ranging from 88-93 MPH fastball. He sports a change-up and a curveball. Both pitches have a lot of development needed to become solid secondary pitches. The curveball appears to be the further developed pitched, said to have "depth and tight rotation." As many kids out of High School, he lacks the mentality of a major league pitcher. He likes to challenge hitters with his fastball and lacks the necessary switch of pace in his secondary pitches. He is currently 6'1" 195 lbs. and has little room to grow. He will probably bulk up a tad, but the fastball will probably never top 94. His delivery is extremely similar to that of Jeremy Bonderman. It is never a bad thing being compared to Bonderman.

He is said to be a tough, aggressive player. Sounds very similar to a pitcher that the Sox drafted out of High School, Michael Bowden. While Bowden has a different approach to pitching, both were confident pitchers straight out of High School. Don't be shocked if Bailey has success in A ball next year and we start hearing his name on major outlets, like Bowden. Great pick for the Sox. The price, $285,000, was completely in the realm of justification.

Pitching Match-ups

2007-08-24T09:43:00.000-05:00

Here is how the pitching match-ups look from here on in.

Beckett
8/24 @ White Sox
8/29 @ Yankees
9/3 vs. Blue Jays
9/8 @ Orioles
9/14 vs. Yankees
9/19 @ Blue Jays
9/26 vs. A's

Matsuzaka
8/28 @ Yankees
9/2 vs. Orioles
9/7 @ Orioles
9/12 vs. Devil Rays
9/18 @ Toronto
9/25 vs. A's
9/30 vs. Twins

Schilling
8/24 @ White Sox
8/30 @ Yankees
9/4 vs. Blue Jays
9/9 @ Baltimore
9/15 vs. Yankees
9/21 @ Devil Rays
9/27 vs. Twins

Wakefield
8/25 @ White Sox
8/31 vs. Orioles
9/5 vs. Blue Jays
9/10 vs. Devil Rays
9/16 vs. Yankees
9/22 @ Devil Rays
9/28 vs. Twins

Tavarez/Lester
8/26 @ White Sox
9/1 vs. Orioles
9/6 @ Orioles
9/11 vs. Devil Rays
9/17 @ Blue Jays
9/23 @ Devil Rays
9/29 vs. Twins

Pedroia

2007-08-23T17:13:00.000-05:00

As much as i hate to say it, I was completely wrong about Dustin Pedroia. I was completely convinced that he would be a lackluster major leaguer, but I am flip-flopping. His numbers have been great this year and his defense has been a great surprised. From everything i heard, Pedroia had below-average range and a weak arm. That has turned out not to be true. He has been extremely steady and solid. His speed is as advertised, but that can easily be forgiven.

So whats so great about Pedroia? Almost all his rates are stellar. Great BB%, K%, LD%, GB%, and BABIP. Those translate to great AVG/OBP/SLG. I am fully convinced that he will have an OPS around .800 for the rest of his career. For a second baseman, that is something that is special. So hear is my apology, I am sorry Dustin. You are a hell of a lot better player than i thought you could be.

Missed weekend

2007-08-20T16:33:00.000-05:00

Well, i apparently missed a lot this weekend. So here are my takes on the major goings on.

We went 2-2 vs. the Angels this weekend. I'll take that. Apparently we should have won 3 our of the 4 games if it wasn't for Gagne, but what can you do. I am really getting sick of hearing Gagne blew it but the more i think about it the more i relax. My sources tell me Gagne has been looking good and has some nasty movement on the change-up. If that is true, the results will come along. Also, Delcarmen struggled as well. If Gagne wasn't here he would be in a bigger situation and probably struggling similarly. All and all, splits against really good teams are acceptable.
Buccholz made his debut and got the win in the effort. I really can't speak much to his game. I see his line wasn't an awful one, at least when you consider it was his first start, but for a rookie the line can be misleading. He will be back up here in a couple of weeks and i'll make a much better analysis on him.
Pena is gone and Kielty is in. Not a huge Kielty fan, so that's really all i have to say about that. Pena leaving town is the bigger news. He is now with the Nationals in exchange for a PTBNL. I'm hearing that Chris Carter is that player. I don't really understand that since Carter is owned by the D-Backs, but these PTBNL trades are confusing. Carter is a nice player that can flat out hit. A little old for a prospect and not a great defender, but he is very similar to a Jack Cust.
Everyone knows a hate Dougie, so how happy was i to see he was put on the DL. He has a strained right calf which shouldn't keep him out too long. In his stead, the Sox promoted Kevin Cash. I don't understand it at all. Kottaras has caught a knockleball, is younger, and a better hitter. This is the type of thing i hate about Theo. They have better options than they use. That gives me a great idea about a thread. We will see how that progresses.

So, that's the weekend i missed. The lead is down to 4 but no need to get freaked. The Sox are fine.

Jimmy Fund

2007-08-17T05:25:00.000-05:00

Just a quick note. Today is the NESN/WEEI Jimmy Fund Radio-Telethon. It is a great cause and anyone that can make a donation should. The number to call is 877-738-1234. Otherwise, you can go to jimmyfund.org and check things out. The goal for the day is $3 M and I think they will get it.

Finalized draft

2007-08-16T07:21:00.000-05:00

I don't have much time right now so i'm going to rip te draft results off soxprospects.com. Go support that site. It is chalk full of great info. Still no takers for the weekend. I'm not leaving till the morning so you all have time.

1s	(55) Nick Hagadone*	LHP	Washington
1s	(62) Ryan Dent**	SS	Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
2	(84) Hunter Morris	3B	Virgil Grissom HS (AL)
3	(114) Brock Huntzinger	RHP	Pendleton Heights HS (IN)
4	Chris Province	RHP	SE Louisiana U.
5	Will Middlebrooks	RHP	Liberty-Eylau HS (TX)
6	Anthony Rizzo	1B	Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
7	David Mailman	1B	Providence Senior HS (NC)
8	Adam Mills	RHP	UNC-Charlotte
9	Kade Keowen	CF	LSU-Eunice
10	Ken Roque	SS	Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
11	Ryan Pressly	RHP	Marcus HS (TX)
12	Eammon Portice	RHP	High Point U
13	Justin Grimm	RHP	Virginia HS (VA)
14	Jake Cowan	RHP	Roswell HS (GA)
15	Scott Green	RHP	Kentucky
16	Austin Bailey	RHP	Pratville HS (AL)
17	Jaren Matthews	1B	Don Bosco Prep (NJ)
18	Hunter Strickland	RHP	Pike County HS (GA)
19	David Marks	RF	Edmonds CC (WA)
20	Dan Milano	C	Northeastern
21	Aaron Reza	SS	Oklahoma
22	Will Latimer	LHP	Trinidad State JC (CO)
23	Drake Britton	LHP	Tomball HS (TX)
24	Matt Presley	OF	Cheyenne Mountain HS (CO)
25	Seth Garrison	RHP	Texas Christian
26	Deshaun Brooks	3B	Benedict
27	Yasmani Grandal	C	Miami Springs Sr HS (FL)
28	Nick Tepesch	RHP	Blue Springs HS (MO)
29	Juan Carlin	LHP	Riverview HS (FL)
30	Will Vazquez	C	Kent State
31	Dan Buller	LHP	Fresno CC (CA)
32	Ridge Carpenter	RF	Kalani HS (HI)
33	Garrett Larsen	RHP	Navarro College
34	Tony Bajoczky	RHP	Duke
35	Sean Tierney	LHP	Clover Hill School (VA)
36	Scott Lyons	SS	Mt. San Antonio College
37	Scott Lonergan	RHP	Rice
38	Derrick Stultz	RHP	Wharton HS (FL)
39	Jonathon Roof	SS	St. Mary HS (KY)
40	Ryan Fischer	RHP	Lodi HS (CA)
41	Mike Bourdon	C	NW Catholic HS (CT)
42	Chad Povich	RHP	Dixie State
43	Scott Cure	LHP	Idalia HS (CO)
44	Emmanuel Solano	SS	Miami-Dade CC South (FL)
45	Pete Gilardo	C	Dominican College
46	Garrett Young	CF	Liberty

The Green highlighted players were drafted.

Rizzo signs

2007-08-15T18:06:00.000-05:00

Another big name from the 2007 draft signs with the Sox. Andrew Rizzo signs for $325,000. A power hitting first baseman from Florida, Rizzo was taken in the sixth round. Once again, the Red Sox go over the recommended slot price by MLB. With about 5 hours expect to hear some more names. Will Middlebrooks seems like he should sign soon.

Going out of town

2007-08-15T16:40:00.000-05:00

Nothing to do with the Sox, just a message. I'm going to Canada for next next couple days, so i thought it might be a perfect chance to bring someone aboard as a guest writer. If this person succeeds, I'll keep him on the roster going forward. So for the half dozen people that actually read this site, if you are interested let me know. You can either leave a message hear and leave me your e-mail or you can just go ahead and e-mail me yourself at RSOripwa@gmail.com.

Sell high on Timlin

2007-08-15T15:09:00.000-05:00

So I'm watching the game and Timlin is pitching well. To be honest, he has pitched well for awhile now. Ever since coming off the DL, he has really has only had one hiccup at Seattle. So why am i selling on Timlin? He is getting extremely lucky. This is a perfect example of why stats are important. Timlin looks great but with what he is doing, he should be doing significantly worse. He is only striking out 11.5% of batters, which combined with walking 5.4% is unacceptable. For a man that gets a lot of DP's, it is amazing to learn that his GB% is only 42%. If those numbers aren't scary enough, look at his BABIP. He is sporting an unreal .230 BABIP. That is nearly .100 points lower than his career average. He is bound to come back to earth in that respect. Furthermore, his FIP, 5.08, is significantly higher than his ERA, 3.82. It is all well and good that Timlin is performing, but i hope Tito is looking at the numbers I am. This man could be a train wreck in the near future.

Offerman charged with assault

2007-08-15T09:29:00.000-05:00

Former Red Sox star, Jose Offerman, was charged with two counts of second degree assault after an incident that happened during Tuesday nights game. After being pitched at, Offerman charged the mound with bat in hand and swung at the pitcher, Matt Beech, breaking his right middle finger. He went to swing again but the catcher was able to spot it. In stopping it, the catcher took a strong hit to the head and is suffering from a concussion. Offerman posted a $10,000 bond and is scheduled in court on the 23rd. This is one of the scariest stories i have heard in a long time. I hope the courts are very stern and set a precedent because this is just unacceptable.

Who's who?

2007-08-14T14:43:00.000-05:00

Lets take a look at a couple pitchers that the Red Sox have had in their farm system. I wont put a name on the players, so we don't get a jaded point of view based on what we have seen and heard.

IP-BB%-K%-ERA-FIP

Player A
30.1 6.5% 39% 3.26 2.89

Player B
71.2 10.1% 16.7% 3.89 3.85

Player C
112.1 6.4% 23.3% 3.77 3.51

Out of these players, who deserves to be a big league starter? Looking at the numbers I would say Player C is the most appealing. He has done the best over a long period of time. Player A has the best numbers by far, but just hasn't pitched enough innings to know for sure. Player A leads in every category but IP and BB% and is only .1% behind in BB%. If he can put together one or two more starts at this quality, their is no doubt he should be the man.

I could go back and forth about which player i would rather, player A or C. What i do know for certain is Player B would not be my guys. He is walking too many guys, not striking enough guys out and is allowing the most runs. He seems like a guy that needs time down in the minors working on his control.

All that being said, lets reveal who the players are. Player A is Clay Buchholz. Player B is Jon Lester and Player C is Devern Hansack. Based on the numbers, the one player that has no argument in being in the majors is the man that has the job. Take what you want from that.

Dent signs

2007-08-14T09:25:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox announced that they signed their 62nd pick in the 2007 draft, Ryan Dent, yesterday Dent is a promising young shortstop from California. He signed for $571,000, which is actually over the recommended slot price by the MLB, $526,500. The deadline for signing draft picks is 37 hours away, so expect to hear about this soon. Sometime after Wednesday i will do a complete run down of who signed and who did and eventually i hope to do write ups on a couple of them.

2008 Boston Red Sox

2007-08-13T13:14:00.000-05:00

In times like these, I like to look to the future. I could sit here and write about how i hate this team, how i can't believe this is happening, or how much i want Theo and Tito out of town. I will not do that because all it does is get me more angry. So instead, i'm going to take a look at what the team might look like come next April. Obviously, this will all be speculation but it is interesting to look at.

Under contract
C - Jason Varitek ($9 M)
1st - Kevin Youkilis (>$1 M)
2nd - Dustin Pedroia (>$1 M)
SS - Julio Lugo ($9 M)
3rd - UNKNOWN
Rf - J.D. Drew ($14 M)
Cf - Coco Crisp ($4.75 M) or Jacoby Ellsbury (>$1 M)
Lf - Manny Ramirez ($20 M)
DH - David Ortiz ($12.5 M)
Bench - Coco Crisp ($4.75 M) or Jacoby Ellsbury (>$1 M)
Bench - Alex Cora ($2 M)
Bench - Wily Mo Pena (>$3 M)
Bench - UNKNOWN

SP - Josh Beckett ($9.5M)
SP - Daisuke Matsuzaka ($8M)
SP - Clay Buchholz (>$1M)
SP - Jon Lester (>$1M)
SP - Tim Wakefield ($4M)*
RP - Julian Tavarez ($3.85M)*
RP - Hideki Okajima ($1.25M)
RP - Javier Lopez (>$1M)
RP - Manny Delcarmen (>$1M)
RP - UNKNOWN
RP - UNKNOWN
Cl - Jonathan Papelbon (>$1M)

*Those players have club options. The Sox may choose to let them walk, but for now lets assume they don't.

Based on those totals, the Red Sox have around $105 million rapped up on next years team. They have to replace 4 positions, /3rd baseman/backup catcher/2 relief pitcher. I doubt they will be able to replace the 4rd baseman internally. That means they will have to go outside the organization or resign Lowell. We will get back to resigning players later. Their isn't much on the market in terms of 3rd baseman. For free agents, the Sox would be picking between Mike Lamb and Pedro Feliz. Both are really below average and i strongly doubt the Sox would sign either to start.

In terms of a trade, their are a couple guys that might be on the blocks. The long shot is Miguel Cabrera. He is one of the best young players in baseball, but has some downsides. He will cost the Sox a lot to get and his weight issues and defensive skills are suspect. A name that hasn't been talked about is Garret Atkins. Their is a log jam in Colorado and Atkins might be the odd man out. I am not really sure how much it will cost, but if it is reasonable it could be a great pick up. Being a righty, he will have a chance to thrive in Fenway. Last year was a breakout year, but this year he has regressed. I am not all that worried about that. His LD% and GB% are great. He is just getting unlucky in terms of BABIP. Don't be surprised if you see Atkins at the hot corner next year.

The backup catcher situation is really not a huge deal. Their is a small chance that they could look inside the organization. George Kottaras might be a good enough hitter to be a backup. He is also appealing because he has experience catching the knockleball. Mark Wagner and Jon Still are probably at least a year away. Externally is the more likely route. I honestly have no clue who they will target. The only thing to keep in mind is Wakefield has implied that when Mirabelli goes, so will he. Keep an eye on that in the off-season.

The Red Sox will most defiantly look internally for atleast one of the two openings in the bullpen. Devern Hansack has been great in AAA. If given the shot, he could be a very good long man. Travis Hughes has had a long road to where he is right now, but he is shining right now. While he is pushing 30 years old, he has posted a sub-2 ERA for almost the hole season. I have a man crush on Craig Breslow and am very confident in his abilities to pitch in the majors. Than you have to mention Craig Hansen. He is the most talented of the bunch but has yet to reach his potential. He is coming around of late, so i wouldn't be shocked if he is on the team. Their are guys on the free agent market, but nothing that seems right. Maybe a Scott Linebrink or Kerry Wood would be worth a look but i wouldn't go their. The price will be higher than the rewards. If I was in charge Breslow and Hansack are the guys i would go with.

Now that we have an idea of who is staying here and who might replace the departed, maybe it's about time to see who is actually leaving.

Expiring Contracts
Curt Schilling - $13M
Mike Lowell - $9M
Matt Clement - $9.5M
Eric Gagne - $6M
Eric Hinske - $5.625M
Mike Timlin - $2.8M
Brendan Donnelly - $1.4M
Doug Mirabelli - $.75M

For those players to rejoin the Red Sox, they would need to sign new contracts. Lets assume they don't and try to predict their Free Agency status. I think Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell, and Eric Gagne will all be Type A free agents. That means if they sign with a team other than the Red Sox, the Sox will receive a first round and supplemental round draft pick from the team they sign with. That right there is six high draft picks for the Sox to work with.

I find it very difficult for all these players to walk. It has been reported that Curt Schilling really wants to stay. It remains to be seen if the Sox have anywhere near the interest that Schilling has. He is getting up their in age and has shown signs of deterioration of late. Eric Hinske isn't an awful bench player. He can play multiple position and has good on base abilities. Wakefield really wants Mirabelli to stay. I'm not sure if that is going to be enough reason to keep the awful bat the Mirabelli has. Lowell is the most likely to stay. Everyone on the team loves the guy, he loves it here, and he has succeeded. With a very limited amount of options at 3rd, Lowell will probably be back. If they can get him for something like a 3 year 30 million dollar deal, they should do it.

There is still a lot of time between now and April. Hell, there is still 2 months of this season. I just needed to think about something that isn't bad. I hope it got everyone mind off of the crap the is happening.

Drew surging again

2007-08-13T11:49:00.001-05:00

Not a lot of good news to report after a bad weekend for Red Sox nation. One trend that is promising is the revival of J.D. Drew. If you read this frequently, you will know that i am a huge Drew fan. I think he has the most talent on this team, outside of Manny. Sadly, he has done nothing this season to show that besides an amazing June. I, among many others, thought it was the turning point for him. That ended up being wrong. Struggling mightily in July, many people started to bitch and moan again. Well, it's about time to jump back on that band wagon. In August, Drew is hitting .433/.500/.600. Apparently, Scott Boras might have something to do with this recent success. Whatever is the cause, I'm expecting it to continue. If it doesn't, feel free to call me out on it.

The Gagne trade revisited

2007-08-07T16:54:00.001-05:00

Some time has passed since the Red Sox traded Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre to the Ranger in exchange for Eric Gagne. While the first two are pretty well known names among Red Sox fan, neither have very much upside. Beltre, the 17 year old stud from the Dominican, is just that, 17 years old. The kid can't even vote. Potential is a scary word to throw around when talking about kids.

When you break down the players even further you will realize that they aren't top prospects at all. Gabbard, at best, is the 4th best pitcher in the Red Sox organization. You could also make the argument that Johnson, Hagadone, Hanson, Bard, and Pauley are more highly regarded that Gabbard as well. If you are to argue he is better than those four, it is hard to put him even in the same league as Masterson, Bowden, and Buchholz. What i am trying to get at is Gabbard wasn't anything special in terms of the Red Sox organization.

David Murphy is a kid that the Sox have been excited about for it seems like a decade. In reality, it has been 4 years since Murphy was a first round selection. For all his hype, Murphy has never posted an OPS over .802 in a season where he has more than 100 plate appearance. He is a good defender, but he is hardly anything special. He can play all the outfield spots, but would be a below average ML center fielder. In the context of the Sox organization, Murphy ranked anywhere between the 3rd and 6th best outfielder. He is definatly below Moss and Ellsbury. It is arguable that he is below Reddick, Engel, and Kalish. In summation, Murphy is, again, nothing special. He is, at best, a good 4th outfielder.

It is hard to evaluate where Engel Beltre ranks in term of the Sox. Their is no denying that he has tons of talent. You can't rank him among other known prospects since he is so much young than them. Lets rank him among international signings of the last two years. The Sox have signed three other bright young stars in that span other than Beltre, Tejeda, Almanzar, and Lin. In terms of signing bonuses, Beltre ranks second to Almanzar who signed for almost a full million more than Beltre. In terms of numbers to this point, Beltre ranks last. Almanzar has yet to play a game so he isn't included in this discussion. To make my point, he is not the only young bright star we have. My best guess, he is the third best youngster behind Lin and Almanzar.

Now that we have established that these players aren't all that special, what does that tell us? It tells us one of two things. It either shows how extremely strong the Red Sox farm system is or how overrated the Yankees is. The reason why i say that second thing is that the Yanks were in on the Gagne sweepstakes but withdrew because of the high cost. Obviously, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Tabata are strong prospects but i highly doubt those players would have been needed. It was the second tier of players and the Yanks couldn't beat a deal that had zero of the Red Sox top 10 prospects. The Yankees needed Gagne a lot more than the Red Sox did. So what happened here? I think that the Yankees prospects are a little bit overrated and the Red Sox are a little bit underrated. Either way, we got the guy and gave up very little. How can we complain.

Pena clears waivers

2007-08-07T15:23:00.000-05:00

Call me shocked, i just don't get this one. The Herald is reporting that Wily Mo Pena has successfully cleared waivers and is no free to be traded to any team. I'm not shocked he was put on waivers, almost all players do and the Sox want to get rid of Pena, but rather that he got threw without anyone making a claim. He is only owed about a half of a million for this year. After the season he will receive salary arbitration. That should turn out to be about two to three million. After that he is a free agent. Are GMs really not willing to take a 3.5 million dollar risk on Pena?

Pena has made a real fall from grace starting with the signing of J.D. Drew. Many people wanted him to replace Trot in right. That went out the window when they signed Drew and apparently so did Pena's skills. I really don't get what happened either. His ISOP, BB%, K%, BABIP, LD%, and GB% are all well in the range of his normal stats. Even though that is the case, he has seen his AVG, OBP, and SLUG significantly down. To his credit, his numbers on the road are pretty darn good, .313/.361/.612. It is odd though, generally right handed power hitters thrive in Fenway. Maybe Pena is the exception that proves the rule.

My last point is exactly why i am so shocked. If a man can post an OPS approaching 1.000 in about 75 plate appearance, why wouldn't you take a chance? He has shown flashes of brilliance and has a body of record to prove it. He is a 40 home run hitter in the making. How could the White Sox or the Nationals not put a claim in. Both teams are known to like him and both are going no where. Neither should be sweating the $ 3.5 million. Maybe they are they are just being really smart. With Kielty now in the minors, presumably to take Pena's spot, they know the Sox need to get rid of him. Maybe they are just waiting for them to DFA. Even still, they will still have to pay for him. If someone can explain this to me, I would love to hear it.

Boras is right?

2007-08-06T14:03:00.000-05:00

As an avid baseball fan, it is hard to not know about uber-agent Scott Boras. From players like Rick Ankiel, Jeff Weaver, and Rodrigo Lopez to players like A-Rod, Barry Zito, and Carlos Beltran, Scott Boras has a client list that would rival all-star teams. He is known for his ability to squeeze every last dollar out of a team and will revert to things like opting out of contract and creating bidding wars between super power to drive up costs. He is all that is good and bad with baseball.

Not only a sports agent, he is also a man with a good deal of opinions. Most fall on deaf ears, such as his great idea to expand the World Series to nine games. Oddly, about 3 weeks ago he made a really good observation. He thought that his client, Daisuke Matsuzaka, should have is load lessen. He told the Boston Globe that he would "rather see him throw closer to 100 pitches than 120 pitches." I have noticed that Matsuzaka has been pitching late into games, but i never really looked up the numbers. What i saw was sort of shocking. Daisuke ranks 2nd in baseball in PAPs. For a good definition of PAPs read here. Basically PAPs stands for Pitchers Abuse points and it tracks how many pitches a pitcher makes after a certain number of pitches. For instance, someone pitching 120 pitches gets more abuse points than someone that pitches 100.

In Baseball Between the Numbers, the guys at BP talk about why a pitcher wares down. Essentially, they establish that pitchers get hurt when they pitch while being tired. Most pitcher start to tire after 100 pitcher. Daisuke is pitching over that amount very frequently. So for one time i will say this, I agree with Scott Boras. He is very correct in his assessment that Daisuke should pitch less. When have him signed long term, he is young, and a great talent. There is no need for him to be burnt out by 29. I really hope Tito and Theo will heed the words of this annoying man and do the right thing.

State of the RSO

2007-08-05T15:10:00.000-05:00

Recently, we finally past the century mark in posts. I know, this is HUGE. Their are thousands of fans that come and get their Red Sox new from this site and everyday we are getting more important. Oh wait, about 3 people come here to get new about the Red Sox and everyday we stay about the same in importance. It doesn't matter how many people come here though. I started this out of share boredom and annoyance at some of the coverage the Sox receive and i see no stopping at this point. But to the handful of people that actually come here every week, I'd like to hear from you. You can either comment on posts or email me (rsoripwa@gmail.com). What can be improved? What would you like to hear about? What do you not like about the site? I know my editing has been sub par. That is the one complaint i would have. But i would like to hear from you. Sometimes i wonder "if a blogger writes a post but no one is around to read it, does it exist?"

One other thing, i am now part of the Yard barker network. It is a place where you can post sites that you think are interesting and discuss them with fellow fans. You also have the ability to rate posts. I've been putting the posts on the website and have had decent success but it could be better. So i suggest you all join the network and give this site great grades. I know you all are thinking it. Alright well there you have it. Keep reading, I'll keep writing.

Farm Hens: Brandon Moss

2007-08-05T12:09:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox are set to bring up Brandon Moss to replace Eric Hinske. Hinske will be missing the next several days for personal reasons. Lucky for Moss and the Red Sox, they have had Moss fielding ground balls at first. While he still has a ways to go in defensive abilities at first, he might see some time at there. Not a lot has been talked about in regards to Moss. Personally, i knew very little before writing this. What i did know what he was basically call a bust after two full seasons at Portland and never really shined. But he started off the season at Pawtucket and he has proved all the nay-sayers wrong.

He has all the makings of a good players. When i am evaluating a prospect, i look at four stats, K%, BB%, GB%, and LD%. I feel that those are the most constant when players change levels. They also tell a great deal about how the ball is getting hit and why he would be failing or succeeding. What Moss does great is the LD and GB rates. He doesn't hit many ground balls but hits a good amount of line drives. Line drives land for hits around 75% of the time. So if you are hitting a good deal of them, you should succeed. Ground balls are more often than not going to be outs, so keeping those down are key.

Moss doesn't have amazing strike out and walk rates. He walks about 9% of the time while striking out about 20%, however this year it is all the way up to 25.5%. Walking is a lot more important than striking out, when looking at minor leaguers. Striking out isn't really all that bad, but if a guy never walks that can kill his future. Patience and plate discipline is something a player needs but is often not achievable after leaving the minors. Once a free swinger, always a free swinger.

Looking just at this season, Moss was doing amazing. I said was because since June, he has been back to old Moss. He is hitting for no power at all. As you can see in the chart below, his ISOP has been steadily decreasing for almost two months. For a player trying to be a corner infielder/outfielder, that is not acceptable. Teams need power out of those positions. If Moss can get his SLG% back up to around .500, he will never amount to anything. I think it has been more of bad luck than anything, however. He is hitting a lot more GB's and LD's in July. But his BABIP is some how pretty far down. Maybe he is getting a little tired, but i strongly doubt that is the leading cause. He has good power potential, seven weeks of baseball doesn't change that.

Stats are some of the picture, but clearly not all of it. Scouts actually like Moss a lot. They say he has a great approach to the game and has a good make-up. That is often more important than you would think. If the guy can't hack it mentally, than physically ability often suffers. He is a leader and has shown the ability to perform in the clutch. Last year, Moss was the MVP of the AA playoffs. May seem small, but i love that about him. I think that Moss could come in here and play some good baseball. I doubt he ever plays for the Red Sox, but he will be a good Major Leaguer some day, whether it is here or not.

Playoff roster

2007-08-03T14:13:00.000-05:00

Since i am completely convinced the Red Sox will make the playoffs, it is time to start thinking about what the team will look like. There are two issues that need to be addressed. First, who will make the 25-man roster. Secondly, how will the rotation look. It is hard to establish these things definitively because of injury and possible trades, but i'm going to make an educated guess in an ideal situation.

Most players are given. The Mannys and Becketts of the world are certainly making the squad. The question is with the 4th outfielder and the finally few spots of the bullen. The 4th outfielder will ultimately come down to Wily Mo Pena, Brandon Moss, or Jacoby Ellsbury. The obvious choice is Pena. He is on the team and has the most experience, however i hate him being on the team. In a 4th outfielder, you need a person that can pinch hit, pinch run, and be a defensive replacement. Pena only has the ability to pinch hit and he has had very little success this season. Moss is the best hitter of the bunch. He also had great success in the AA playoffs last season. I think that he is too similar to Hinske to make the team, but i wouldn't mind it. Ellsbury is my pick. He plays a great CF and has a good enough arm to play the corners if needed. He is far and away the fastiest player the Red Sox have, which lends well to a 4th outfielder. Hitting isn't his strongest suit, but he has enough skills to give him a couple of at bats.

The Sox will probably carry 12 pitchers. All the starters should make it, along with Paps, Gagne, Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin. That leaves 2 spots for any combo of Lopez, Tavarez, Snyder, Hansack, Buchholz and Breslow. I think Lopez is a lock. If you don't include Lester, the Sox would have no lefties. While i don't think Lopez is a very good LOOGY, he is all we have. I would push for Hansack or Breslow. They are better pitchers than both Snyder and Tavarez, but i don't run the team. On that same note, i would mind see Buchholz up there. You will hardly see the 12 reliever, it might be good for his development. Very unlikely but i would like to see that. Tavarez is going to be the guy. Tito loves him for some odd reason. Snyder deserves it from his performance, but that doesn't matter all the time. Breslow might be a dark horse because he is a lefty.

Now that we know who will be on the team, how will they be positions. More to the point, how will the rotation look? There are two legit questions to be asked. Who will be pitching in the rotation and in what order. Normal baseball protocol now-a-days is a 4 man rotation. I wouldn't be shocked to see Beckett or Dice-K go on shorter rest but lets just assume we will stick with tradition. Beckett, Dice-K and Schilling are locks. That leaves one spot for either Lester or Wakefield. It is difficult to predict because Lester has a lot to prove, but I bet the Sox would like him to pitch himself into that rotation. It would be great to have a lefty in the rotation and Wakefield is the perfect swingman for the playoffs. He has shown the ability to come out of the pen and succeed. This might be what the Sox want, but it isn't whats going to happen. Wakefield is to stable to pitch himself out of the rotation. He will be around an ERA+ 0f 100, like he is year in and year out. Lester however will not be at that level. The guy isn't striking enough people out. When you are pitching to contact, you are bound to run into trouble. This is just not the year for Lester.

Wakefield is going to pitch Game 4 come September, but who will pitch the first three? It is really hard to say. Beckett, Schilling, and Dice-K can all make good arguments. Beckett has been a World Series MVP and pitched lights out this year. Dice-K has been struggling a little of late, but has been great this year. In Japan, Matsuzaka pitched in many high pressure situations so that shouldn't be an issue. Schilling has been the man in the past and Tito would love him to still be it. I just don't see Schilling being great from here on in and unless he is than he is bound for the 3rd game. Dice-k will pitch the second and Beckett will pitch the first. This makes the most sense because Beckett has shown that he can be very effect on 2 days of rest. So there we have it, Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, than Wakefield.

A lot can happen the last two months of the season. With injuries, regressions, and improvements, anything could happen. If the playoff were to start today that would have to be the way.

Looking forward

2007-08-02T17:44:00.000-05:00

There are 54 game left in the season, so it's about time to take another look at the schedule and see where the Red Sox stand. The Sox are current 66-42 to the Yankees 58-50. Before we go on lets look at the teams both have to play over the next month:

Red Sox:
3 - Seattle (.557) 1.617
4 - Chicago Sox (.454) 2.575
10 - Baltimore (.467) 4.67
12 - Tampa Bay (.383) 4.596
7 - LA Angels (.585) 4.095
6 - New York (.537) 3.222
6- Toronto (.495) 2.97
2 - Oakland (.472) 0.944
4 - Minnesota (.514) 2.056

Yankees
6 - Boston (.611) 3.666
6 - Kansas City (449) 2.694
10 - Toronto (.495) 4.95
3 - Cleveland (.565) 1.695
9 - Baltimore (.467) 4.203
8 - Detroit (.570) 4.56
3 - LA Angels (.585) 1.755
6 - Tampa Bay (.383) 2.298
3 - Seattle (.557) 1.671

So looking at that, we can see that the Yankees have a more difficult end to the season. Their opponents winning percentage is about 51%, while the Sox are around 49%. Not only this is working in the Red Sox favor, but the fact that their lead is so big. An 8 game lead with 54 games remaining is actually huge. If the Red Sox play .500 baseball from here on out they will have a record of 93-69. For the Yankees to surpass them they would need to win 36 of their last 54 games. If the Red Sox play at the pace they are currently at, 99-63, the Yankees would need to win 42 of the last 54, a .778 winning percentage. This is almost impossible for any team, even the Yankees. Red Sox fans should starting looking forward to October.

Draft update

2007-08-02T13:23:00.000-05:00

With less than 2 weeks for teams to sign their draft picks, lets take a look at the top 15 players drafted by the Red Sox:

Nick Hagadone, 21 (LHP) - Signed and sent to Lowell
Ryan Dent, 18 (SS) - Not signed
Hunter Morris, 18 (3b) - Not signed
Brock Huntzinger, 19 (RHP) - Signed and sent to the Gulf Coast League
Chris Province, 22 (RHP) - Signed and currently pitching in Greenville
Will Middlebrooks, 18 (RHP) - Not signed*
Anthony Rizzo, 17 (1b) - Not signed
David Mailman, 18 (1b) - Not signed
Adam Mills, 22 (RHP) - Signed and sent to Lowell
Kade Keowen, 21 (CF) - Signed and sent to Lowell
Ken Roque, 17 (SS) - Signed and sent to the Gulf Coast League
Eammon Portice, 22 (RHP) - Signed and sent to Lowell
Justin Grimm, 17 (RHP) - Not signed
Jake Cowan, 19 (RHP) - Not signed
Scott Green, 21 (RHP) - Not signed

*It is reported that Middlebrooks has signed but the Red Sox are waiting to announce it because it is an over-slot deal. Expect it to be announced on the 15th.

Dice-K heading home

2007-08-02T12:03:00.001-05:00

The Associated Press is reporting that the Red Sox are likely to start the 2008 season playing in Japan. It is uncertain who will be the opponent but the A's and Angel's are the early favorites. The Seattle Mariners are a long shot at this point, but i feel like they make the most sense. With Ichiro and Johjima, it seems like a logical match-up.

This is all well and good in terms of revenue for the club and exposure in the Far East, but i think it is an awful thing for the team itself. The trip to Japan is an extremely long one that could take a toll on the players. If their isn't an extra off-day or something like that, this could put the team at a huge disadvantage. I'll have more on this when it is finalized. For now, I'm going to be nervously optimistic about this proposition.

Schilling's coming

2007-08-01T18:40:00.000-05:00

This game is brutal and it's only been 2 innings. Tavarez looks really really bad. He isn't getting ground balls and is getting hit hard. But don't fret, this appeared to be his last start for awhile. Schilling has looked great at Pawtucket and will be available the next go around. At Pawtucket he managed 15 innings, giving up no runs or walks while striking out 18. We will defiantly need him because Gabbard is gone and Tavarez stinks.

Update: Schilling will start Monday againsts the Angels.

Farm Hens: Catcher

2007-08-01T16:32:00.000-05:00

The worst position for prospects (you could argue in the majors as well) currently in baseball is the catcher. They are few and far between, so it is no surprise that our organization has very little to look forward to. This is an issue because Jason Varitek is getting old, and Doug Mirabelli needs to get out of town as soon as possible. There are three prospects worth speaking off, neither of which are much,

George Kottaras was traded to the Red Sox in exchange for David Wells last year. He is currently the catcher at Pawtucket, posting a line of .238/.315/.389. Since coming to Boston he has seen a dip in his production. The first three seasons of his career he posted an OPS above .813 in all of them. A huge problem is his walks around down and strikeouts are down. Odd trend, so i would expect it to start to change. His BABIP is also down, but both his LD% and GB% have stayed pretty constant. I would expect that to increase as well. Defensively, he is pretty solid. I think he has a decent chance of getting a shot at catching Wakefield next year. He is the furthiest along of all the catchers and has experience catching the knockleball. I don't know how Wake would feel about this, but that will have to wait. Kottaras is not a star in the making, but he may be a back-up someday in the big leagues.

Mark Wagner is the biggest surprise on the list. He put up alright numbers at Greenville last year, but took a big hit in production when being promoted to Wilmington. This year the organization moved him to Lancaster and he has been a monster. He has posted a line of .299/.395/.500. The kid doesn't hit many groundballs, which is extremely nice. He also hits for decent contact, hardly ever striking out and walks at an alright rate. It needs to be said that he is playing in a hitters heaven. Balls fly out of that park, which makes me a little skeptical. I don't think he can slug .500 anywhere but Lancaster. Wagner plays good defense, and is known for having a good presence for a catcher. He calls a good game, which makes he all the more attractive. He is 23 years old, so I'd expect him to be promoted, this year or next, to Portland. My guess is he never makes it. I wish the kid luck, but the numbers don't translate.

Jonathan Still is the youngest and, in my opinion, the most attractive of the bunch. Still has been a beast this season, not just for a catcher. He has a line of .299/.429/.556 while playing for Greenville. He has great plate discipline and leadership skills. He is a good in game caller but has a below average arm. He has played some time at first and that could end up being his position. Makes good contact, more importantly the right kind of contact. He has gap power and hits lots of line drives. He still has a lot of development, so I wouldn't expect to see him anytime in the next 2 years. On that note, i think he has the best chance of being a big leaguer. The biggest question mark is whether he can improve his defense enough to stay at catcher, or will he have to make the move to first.

Gagne to Boston

2007-07-31T15:14:00.000-05:00

As you probably have already heard, the Red Sox are close to finishing a deal where they send Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre (whom i wrote about here) to Texas for Eric Gagne. I am extremely excited about this deal. Gabbard is nice but nothing more than a #4-5, Murphy is a 4th outfielder, and Beltre is nice but only 17 years old and has a long way's away.

The bullpen will look like Tavarez/Snyder/Timlin/Delcarmen working primarily in the 6th and 7th or long relief. That leaves Gagne and Okajima to work the 8th and Papelbon closing. I could easily see Gagne closing a couple games, giving Paps a rest. It is hard to say this isn't a scary bullpen. When you consider that they will have Lopez, Breslow, Hansack, and Hansen in the minors, there are many many fall back options in case of emergency. Theo just shorten the game and i think that will pay dividends come October.

Farm Hens : Jacoby Ellsbury

2007-07-30T16:14:00.001-05:00

Red Sox fans have heard a great deal about this kid, and almost all has been good. He is the "next Johnny Damon." Well, that is not quite true. I have never really been huge on this guy. There are a bunch of reasons, but before i get there let me go over the things he does well.

Ellsbury is fast and when i say fast i mean FAST. The kid has wheels and knows how to use them. This season he has stole 35 bags while only getting caught six times. Those are the type of numbers that can truly effect a game. That doesn't mention all the times he goes first to third or scores from first on a double. He is fast and smart. You will find no complaints from me about his speed.

To complement his speed, he is a great defender. He has great range and has always had a good read off the bat. He has won numerous awards at almost every level for his defense. He has an alright arm, but the range makes up for it. He also has a good eye. He isn't an OBP machine, but its nice to have a guy that can walk than steal a base.

Now to way i don't like him. He has zero power to speak of. He has nine home runs in his whole career, that spands 3 years. In spots where he has more than 100 ABs, he has never posted a slugging percentage over .434. Based on that, we can see he isn't even hitting many doubles. It is one thing to have a guy that has little power, but no power is unacceptable.

On a same wave length as the power, he doesn't hit many line drives. For a player like him, to have a LD% around 12 just isn't good enough. Going with that, he has a GB% around 60 most of the time. Those two numbers are killers. If you can't get the ball into the air, you are bound to fail. Basically, he is relying on his ability to beat our slow hit balls. In the majors, that isn't going to work. He will probably have a BABIP around .300. Using that and what we know about his power, a line of .280/.360/.400 is a realistic goal. While that is alright for a player with his tools, he is nothing like the hype.

Alright, so i don't hate the guy. I just want people to temper the excitement. Ellsbury is probably the next Chris Duffy (as PECOTA thinks). I wouldn't hate that. I just want people to understand we aren't getting Johnny Damon. They are completely different types of players and if we compare the two, we are bound to be disappointed.

Manny's back

2007-07-29T12:28:00.000-05:00

One of the biggest disappointments of the season, to this point, has been Manny Ramirez. He got off to a really slow start, which is starting to become a trend. But don't fret, he is coming around. In July, he has hit .360/.448/.674. Those are incredible numbers and are a lot closer to the Manny we know than his April numbers, .202/.314/.315.

To Manny's credit, he has got on base pretty consistent this year. In OBP, he is out performing his 2004 and 2005 number by posting a .399. But Manny is our clean-up hitter, we need more than just getting on base. He is getting payed to hit home runs and knock in runners. That is also starting to come around. As you can see from the graphs below, provided by firstinning.com, you can see his ISOP coming back. You can also see the how is power has looked the past two seasons as well.

As you can see, he is still not hitting to his potential, but i think this is what you are going to start getting from him. He is getting older, and his bat is starting to slow down. That doesn't mean he can't SLG .600, but it is starting to get hard. Right now he is at .519 and i would expect that to be much higher by the end of the season. My best guess is he'll end the year with 30 home runs and a SLG around .560. That is much closer to the Manny we know and love.

Boston's Defense

2007-07-28T14:52:00.000-05:00

There is a pretty strong correlation between a teams defense and their success in the playoffs. So that made me wonder how well the Sox are playing D. The best two stats that i like to look at his FRAA and Defensive Win Shares. First, lets take a look at the FRAA:

Name/FRAA
Jason Varitek - +8
Kevin Youkilis - +7
Dustin Pedroia - 0
Julio Lugo - 0
Mike Lowell - -9
Manny Ramirez - 0
Coco Crisp - +17
J.D. Drew - -6

Total = +17

As you can see, the team is doing extremely well. Crisp has been a real stud, posting a +17. Some things i weren't expecting is Drew having a -6, Lowell having a -9 and Manny having a 0. I would have expected a flip of that. Manny is generally a poor defender and Drew and Lowell are normally above average fielders. Our double play combo has been completely neutral. I don't mind that when you are so strong at center and catcher. Defense starts up the middle, that is why Crisp is so important. Now lets look at Defensive Win Shares:

Name/DWS/postion ranking
Jason Varitek - 2.9 (19th)
Kevin Youkilis - 1.5 (2nd)
Dustin Pedroia - 3.5 (4th)
Julio Lugo - 4.1 (6th)
Mike Lowell - 2.3 (6th)
Manny Ramirez - 1.9 (14th)
Coco Crisp - 5.6 (1st)
J.D. Drew - 1.4 (19th)

These stats aren't too different from the FRAAs we saw above. Crisp is actually leading the league in Defensive Win Shares, which is extremely impressive. The only big thing to point out that both DP and Lugo rank strong on this list. That can be slightly attributed to their position but they both rank high for their positions, so it is no fluke.

In summation, the Defense has been a great surprise. Without a truly great defensive stat to look at for ranking, I'm gonna say they are a top 8 defensive club. That will do wonders for them come October.

Farm Hens: Lars Anderson

2007-07-26T15:41:00.000-05:00

Here is a kid that could be great. Lars Anderson is the Red Sox prime corner infield prospect. He is a 19 year old lefty first baseman. He stands 6' 4" and 240 lbs. The Red Sox drafted him in the 18th round last year. He went so late because of sign ability, he had sandwich round talent. In High School he was a complete monster, posting a line of .423/.574/1.013.

Lars has spent this year playing A ball at Greenville. He has posted pretty good numbers, .284/.381/.448. To go along with those he posts a nice 16% Line Drive rate and 13.4% walk rate. Those are very encouraging numbers for a young kid. He has yet to reach his huge power potential. With the way he is built, there is almost no end to his power. He has played acceptable defense, which is what they thought they were drafting.

Anderson has a lot of potential and has done a good job of showing that at Greenville. I don't think we will be seeing this kid for awhile, so it's a little early to pronounce him the future. I would guess that he starts next season at Portland. After that, I'd assume he would get a full year at Pawtucket. Best guess, he'll be a late season call-up in 2009 and starting for the big club in 2010. There is a lot of time between than and now, but keep an eye on him.

Pineiro staying in town

2007-07-25T17:22:00.000-05:00

Oddly, Joel Pineiro agreed to his assignment and will report for the Paw Sox.

This is a bit of a surprise: the Sox just announced that Joel Pineiro cleared waivers and accepted an optional assignment to Pawtucket. The right-hander, who officially was designated for assignment on Monday, is scheduled to pitch three innings tonight for the PawSox at Toledo. Seeing that using him as a reliever didn’t work out as hoped, the Sox appear ready to stretch out Pineiro and see if he can make a contribution later in the season as a starter.

Red Sox Nation lives

2007-07-25T15:44:00.000-05:00

Two quick little stories that made me happy. First, apparently Red Sox Nation is extremely strong in Cleveland. And apparently, C.C. Sabathia is pissed about it.

For the second straight night, Jacobs Field rocked to the cheers of thousands of Boston fans.

"It bothers me," said Sabathia. "It's a little embarrassing. There are such great fans in this city. I was here when we sold this place out. But when you hear 'Youk, Youk, Youk' when Youkilis comes to the plate , that's not Cleveland."

I'm someone that thinks this Red Sox nation stuff is a bunch of crap. But when you hear stories like this, it's hard not to think their is a true fan base. I have never gone to a game outside of Fenway, so i wouldn't know if this happens everywhere, but it appears it does. I know there are lots of fans in Baltimore and Tampa, along with West Coast places like San Diego and Oakland. It really is extremely interesting. It's not like this team has had a ton of success over the years. We only have one championship in the past 89 years. Regardless of why this team transcends regions, it has to help the team in some way to have fans cheering for them where ever they go.

Bench worries

2007-07-25T14:34:00.000-05:00

You look at this team and it's hard to find a real issue with it. The starting rotation looks great, the lineup is very good, and the bullpen has been the best in baseball so far. The one problem i can find is the bench. What looked like could be a strength in April has been a disappointment almost four month's into the season. The only player that has put up acceptable numbers is Cora.

Alex Cora - .267/.303/.430
Wily Mo Pena - .197/.269/.341
Eric Hinske - .211/.310/.431
Dough Mirabelli - .182/.258/.307

I think it should be a top priority of Theo to improve the bench at the deadline and in the off-season. I think Pena should be traded for either prospects or bullpen help. The long rumored Bobby Kielty rumor would not be bad at all. He can play all three defensive positions, which is the key. If that doesn't happen we have many in house options. Brandon Moss, David Murphy, and Jacoby Ellsbury could all be really good 4th outfielder come September.

While Pena looks like the only person that can be replaced this season, Mirabelli needs to go this offseason. If that means we have to get rid of Wakefield, so be it. An awful backup catcher is not worth keeping around because a league average pitcher likes him as his catcher. One of Theo's biggest mistakes was trading away Bard and Shoppach. Both would be great backups for us this season and going forward. Teh FA class for catchers is very small, but maybe a trade for Jarrod Saltalamacchia might be in order? The Braves have no where to play him and need a center fielder. The Red Sox need to get rid of a center fielder, Crisp or Ellsbury, and get a backup catcher/catcher for the future. It makes a lot of sense, we will have to wait and see how it turns out.

Playoff chances

2007-07-25T12:07:00.000-05:00

The Sox are 7.5 games up, but the Yanks are surging. So that begs the question, should we be worried? The answer to that is, not really. You should be no more worried right now than at any point this season. If the Red Sox were to win 50% of the games left (31-31) they would be at 92-70. Not a bad record. For the Yankees to pass that they would need to go 40-23, to put them at 93-69. That is no easy task. Lets say the Sox go on there pace. At the end of the season they would be 99-63. For the Yanks to reach that they would need to go 47-16. As good as the Yankees may be, that's impossible. I think playing .600 ball is completely possible for the Sox. They have a cream puff schedule in September and are currently beating a very good Indian's team. PECOTA puts the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 98%, and I have to agree.

Kevin Goldstein Chat #2

2007-07-24T13:29:00.000-05:00

BP's prospect guy had another chat yesterday, here are the Red Sox questions.

"RS (Virginia): What's your opinion on two middle infielders who have taken a step forward this year: Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie? Both are showing excellent discipline and a reasonable dose of power. What sort of realistic upside are we talking about for each of these guys? Who do you like better?

Kevin Goldstein: Cabrera is a year and a half younger and a better defender, so I'll favor him. He's definitely having a bounceback year, and scouts think it's for real. I'm still not sold on Lowrie, primarily because he's pretty fringy defensively on the left side -- could be a nice utility/part starter in the end.

ekanenh (NH): Justin Masterson. For real?

Kevin Goldstein: He's for real if that means a nice big league reliever, which is what I think he is in the end.

joe (boston): do the yankees sign joel pinero just to get redsox nation second guessing, like they did with bellhorn/embree

Kevin Goldstein: Do you really think at any point during any decision making process, that the Yankees care at all about what Red Sox nation thinks? They really don't, I assure you.

Trieu (Cambridge, MA): A prediction for Lester tonight? Will you be tuning in?

Kevin Goldstein: Not sure I'll watch every at-bat, but I'm planning on watchin a good portion. If there's a pool, gimme a line of:

5 4 3 3 3 3

Felix (Boston): I remember you said in your chats that Hughes is better than Lester and it's not that close. Can you explain please?

Kevin Goldstein: Philip Hughes is an elite pitching prospect who went into the season as the best pitching prospect in baseball. Lester is a very good pitching prospect and one to be excited about, but he's not in Hughes' class.

Steve (Boston): Clay Buchholtz looked extremely dominate at times the other day, 10 ks in 5 innings, what do you predict for his future?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he's one of the top 10 prospects in the game and a future all-star starter.

Jason (Stowe, VT): Regarding the Lester/Hughes non-debate: isn't there a debate whether Lester is even in the Joba class of prospect at this point?

Kevin Goldstein: I'd probably give the slight edge to Joba there. Buchholz/Hughes is a much more salient arguement. I'd still give the nod to Hughes, but I'd take Buchholz over any other Yankee pitching prospect, and there are a TON.

William (Cincinatti): Bailey or Buccholz?

Kevin Goldstein: I'm gonna give Buchholz a tiny edge, but I could go the other way next week. VERY close."

500!!!!!!

2007-07-23T12:43:00.000-05:00

Last night, the Red Sox scored their 500th run. That got me thinking, why are people complaining so much about the offense? Yea, they aren't going to scored 1,000 runs or have many games where they score 20 runs, but they are still a good squad. When you consider that some players are under performing, Manny and Drew stand out the most, i actually think this is a really strong offensive teams and the number's show that.

Rankings
BA - .277 (5th)
Runs - 500 (4th)
OBP - .359 (2nd)
SLG - .441 (4th)
OPS - .801 (3rd)
SB - 53 (7th)

Imagine if Drew, Papi, and Manny start hitting for the power we know they can. Or how about if Lugo and Crisp keep this up or Youkilis and Pedroia go back to how they were playing. This team is not the Yankees, but they are pretty damn close.

Lester returns

2007-07-23T10:47:00.000-05:00

I'm pissed. I think this makes no sense in the slightest. Lester will be brought up tonight to pitch against the Indian's. I just wrote about Lester and how he is showing signs of tiring. Why are we bringing up a guy that is struggling? Both Pauley and Hansack are out pitching him at Pawtucket and i think Tavarez would have done better than Lester is going to. Of coarse, the Red Sox hope that Lester has a future, while those players are AAAA type players at best. This fact alone should not have made this move, but it appears that it has. I really don't get the plan either. With Gabbard pitching great and Schilling on his way back, where does Lester fit after 2 starts?

I'm not only mad about Lester coming up. I can at least understand their motivation in that. Why on earth are the DFAing Piniero. I have made it pretty clear how much i dislike that guy, but Lopez can be optioned to AAA. We didn't need to get rid of this guy. Lopez is not a LOOGY. Lefties actually hit him well for a left handed pitched. Why not option him down, keep Piniero, and wait for another injury to bring a lefty up. September call ups are extremely far away, i think we can last the next 6 weeks with no real LOOGY.

I don't even know, this is jsut pissing me off. This is the reason why i hate Theo. He has no idea what it takes to make a pen. Even i knew that Piniero and Romero had no reason being in our pen, and neither made it into August. We have good arms in our farm, but he insists on bringing out players like Lester and Lopez, neither of which should be on this team.

Lefty Righty problems

2007-07-21T12:51:00.000-05:00

So here we are in July and Manny and Ortiz are still under performing. People say Manny's swing has slowed down and Papi's hurt, which are both true to some extent. That isn't the real problem however. The real problem is their complete inability to hit in the lefty/lefty or righty/righty situation. Meaning Manny can't hit righties and Ortiz can't hit lefties.

Manny Ramirez
Left - .386/.519/.771
Right - .265/.344/.415

David Ortiz
Left - .257/.354/.330
Right - .352/.468/.680

Clearly, this is a huge issue. Maybe we could just combine the two players into one and have the best hitter in baseball. Danny Ramtiz would be hitting .365/.490/.720. He would be a complete monster. Until we learn to do that, we are just going to have to hope that they figure this out.

Farm Hens: Jon Lester

2007-07-19T14:42:00.000-05:00

Normally i would talk about the players stuff, like his arsenal, but that really isn't needed for Lester. We have all seen him at the big league. We've seen him succeed and struggle. He is a lefty with great potential. But after getting cancer about a year ago he has not looked the same. So what are we to expect from Lester going forward?

I don't want what kind of a toll the cancer took on Lester, but from personal experiences i have seen it do a lot of damage. This season he has posted an ERA of 3.89 and a BB/K rate of 31/51. The ERA does not look all that bad, but when you delve deeper into things you see a bigger issue, he is tiring. His June ERA is 5.52 and his July isn't much better, at 4.26. Clearly I am speculating, but how could the cancer not be in some what related. He could not have come into camp in perfect shape.Here is a graph of his ERA of the past year. The green line is his time in Pawtucket, the grey line is his time in Portland.

It is hard to speculate the future for Lester. I always thought he was a tad overrated. He is a lefty with not-so-overpowering stuff. But as a lefty, he will always have value. I am going to work under the assumption that a lot of his struggles can be traced back to his cancer. I think he will be able to come into Spring Training next year in the best shape of his life. If this is the case, i see no reason why he couldn't join the club when the season starts. I don't know if their will be a need for him, however. With Buchholz not to far off, Gabbard has shown he can be a good #5 in the majors, and the possibility that Wakefield and/or Schilling will be back, there might be no room. I think a lot will have to do with how he can finish the last month and a half in the minors and the almost certain call up in September. I'm rooting for him, as all baseball fans should. The man has gone through a lot just to be pitching, success would be nice for this kid.

What is going on?

2007-07-19T10:32:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox aren't playing well, or at least that's how it appears. Since June they have a record of 20-22. On June 1st, the Sox had a 12.5 lead on the Yanks, now it is down to only 7. Clearly this isn't good, but it isn't as bad as you would think. The Sox are getting extremely unlucky. The Red Sox have scored 189 runs over than period and only allowed 176. Based on Pythagorean record, they should have won 53% of his games. That would put the Sox at 23-19. If that had happened than the Yankees would still be 10 games out, the sky wouldn't be falling, and Red Sox nation would be at peace. So please fan, relax. We are under performing and getting unlucky. When those things come around, so will the Sox. The Yankees are a clear threat, but they still have a lot of work to do.

RSN president

2007-07-18T16:44:00.001-05:00

While watching the game last night, it was hard not to hear about this whole Red Sox Nation presidency. To me it is completely retarded, and is a total marketing ploy. John Henry and Co. know that Red Sox fans will buy literally anything if it has anything to do with the ball club. I can never knock people for trying to make money, even though this way is so ridiculous. But when i think that this is how we are paying for Dice-K and Papi, it makes me a little sense concerned.

Last night, Remy went through a list of people running. A lot of good names are out there, but one stands out, Bill Simmons. He is one of the funniest men in sports, and is an avid Boston sports fan. I see no reason why he would not fit the bill. But apparently Remy has a problem with him. He basically attacked Bill last night saying:

Don't be writing in and saying you want to be president because I always wanted to be president of something. You want to be president of one of the greatest nations in the world, Red Sox Nation, you have to represent the people. He's talking about getting free tickets. He's ripping Mike O'Malley. He's ripping my health. I mean, c'mon. The sports guy. There's a lot of sports guys out there, right? Your campaign is officially over. Now he'll rip... what does he write for again?

Obviously, Remy isn't completely serious but still. When he was saying this i had no idea what Simmons stance was, so i looked it up and fell in love. Remy may not like it but i do. So here is the platform for the man i am supporting as president of RSN.

I'm running for the President of Red Sox Nation for ten reasons.

First, I've always wanted to be the President of something; at this point, I don't really care what it is.

Second, I think I can get free tickets out of this.

Third, I heard Mike O'Malley might run and, as much as I enjoy his work, we can't let him be President after he already subjected us to seven years of "Yes, Dear."

Fourth, I'm the guy who once wrote a column called "Why Roger Clemens is the Anti-Christ," you have to vote me just for that.

Fifth, unlike with that chainsmoker Jerry Remy, you'd never have to worry about my health during my tenure - and even if something does happen to me, you'll be in capable hands with my running mate, Rich Garces.

Sixth, I dressed up as Fred Lynn for two straight Halloweens in '75 and '76 - even as a kid, I was making great decisions.

Seventh, I'm sure you have people in your life - in the office, in your dorm, in your family - who claim to be true Sox fans but couldn't pick Todd Benzinger or Dewey Evans out of a police lineup. I'm going to create a nationwide competency test to weed out these bandwagon jerks.

Eighth, I spent the last four years in California learning about political leadership from the great Arnold Schwarzenegger - with that kind of training, I'm going to be unstoppable.

Ninth, I have not one, not two but THREE friends named Sully. That has to count for something.
And tenth, I'm going to use my presidential powers to get more free stuff for kids - free Red Sox Nation memberships, free tickets, free stuff from the Pro Shop and everything else. Vote for Simmons or you're basically admitting that you don't care about kids.

Go and vote or do whatever there is to do for this thing. Honestly, i have no clue how this is suppose to work, but anything that gets Remy's panties in a twist is worth a look.

BA's Jim Callis chat

2007-07-18T13:30:00.000-05:00

Jim Callis is one of the few man I take real stock in their opinion's on prospects. Him and the rest of Baseball America's staff do a great job and do as good a job as anyone in recognizing young talent.

"Mike (Boston): The red sox seem to have a good amount of top end talent picthers in their minor league system but only ellsbury really sticks out as a position prospecr. Do they have any other position players that i should be aware of? Also, do you think that they are auditioning Kason Gabbard as a potential trading chip, young cheap lefty with decent stuff?

Jim Callis: (2:04 PM ET ) Their pitching does stand out more, but they also have guys like first baseman Lars Anderson and middle infielder Jed Lowrie in addition to Ellsbury. I know Gabbard is coming off a shutout, but he's a finesse lefty without a huge ceiling. They might use him in a trade, but it's doubtful he'd be a centerpiece.

Jon (Boston): Buchholz or Joba?

Jim Callis: (2:15 PM ET ) Buchholz.

Jerry Wisconsin: Why Do you think Bucholz is better than Joba's? Is it because of health concerns? Bucholtz has better offspeed offerings? Hughes or Bucholz?

Jim Callis: (2:17 PM ET ) Buchholz has a deeper repertoire and I'm less concerned about his health. I'd still take Hughes over Buchholz.

Nik (Hoboken): I have two issues on players that seem extremely similar, yet rated differently as prospects. 1. Gardner vs. Ellsbury - periphirals are very close. Yet Gardner is viewed as an org player while Ellsbury is viewed as a potential star. I just don't see the difference between the two. 2. Kennedy & Bowden - neither are flamethrowers, Kennedy has been much more dominant, and seems vastly underrated, yet Bowden is generally regarded as a better prospect. Based on repertoire and results, I find it hard to make a case for Bowden over Kennedy. And you're def off on Joba (4 pitches, 3 plus pitches = deep repetoire) and Buchholz, but I'll let that slide

Jim Callis: (2:32 PM ET ) 1. Ellsbury is a far superior center fielder, and that's worth a lot right there. And while he's no power hitter, he has more pop than Gardner, too. 2. Bowden throws about 3-4 mph harder than Kennedy and he's two years younger.

Brian (Concord, NH): Can we look past Buccholtz for a moment - what do you think of the next two in line: Masterson and Bowden?

Jim Callis: (2:43 PM ET ) Bowden.

Scott (Lexington, KY): M. Teixera to BOS for Jon Lester, Willy Mo and a low A pitcher with minimal upside.

Jim Callis: (2:48 PM ET ) Interesting. Not sure Boston would give up Lester when Tex will hit the free-agent market in October, but that looks fair to me.

Taylor (NYC): Alan Horne or Ian Kennedy? Alan Horne or Bowden?

Jim Callis: (3:02 PM ET ) Kennedy. Bowden.

Ben (Minneapolis): Who wins this trade: Cy-tana to Boston for Clay Bucholz and Jacob Ellsbury

Jim Callis: (3:03 PM ET ) Boston would. You can't argue with Santana for two unproven prospects, even if they're good prospects. "

New month, new life

2007-07-18T08:51:00.000-05:00

While the team is struggling, one player is finally starting to turn around. That man is Julio Lugo, and since July started is hitting .395/.449/.535. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, his ground balls are down and his line drives are up. Everything you want from this guy he is doing. Obviously, this numbers are a little inflated, much like his previous stats were really deflated. For the month Lugo has a BABIP of .421, which is unsustainable. That really isn't the point though. He looks like a new player. He has confidence, which for Lugo means a heck of a lot. Since we don't really have another option for a good two years, i hope he can keep this up. At this point, he is a complete wild card, but I'd bet that he hits around .300/.350/.450 the rest of the way. If he can do that, this offense could finally hit its stride.

Tito's mistake

2007-07-15T11:40:00.000-05:00

Generally speaking, I think Tito does a good job. But he has made two of the oddest and, to be blunt, dumbest decisions of late. First, he has been hitting Pedroia 2nd and Youkilis 5th. While Pedroia is a fine hitter, he does not deserve that spot. The two hole is made for Youks. Here is a breakdown of the two:

Youkilis
#2 - 171 ABs .351/.450/.561
#5 - 91 ABs .264/.355/.341

Pedroia
#2 - 101 ABs .307/.391/.436
#9 - 119 ABs .328/.412/.471

I am not advocating putting DP back in the nine hole, but rather Youks should be bat second. There is a clear difference between not only Youks to DPs production, but also Youks production from 5th and 2nd. Come on Tito, even without looking at the stats, you have to see this.

The other problem i have is with Okajima's usage. He has been our best pitcher out of the pen, why are we using him in the 9th inning of a blow out? He has already pitched over 45 innings. Why could Snyder, Timlin, Lopez, or Piniero come in to end the game? It just doesn't make sense. Don't waste your good arms. There are only so many innings in these arms. We will need Paps and Okajima come September and October.

Drew pulled with tight hammy

2007-07-14T14:32:00.000-05:00

My man, J.D. Drew, was pull during yesterday's game because of a tight hammy. This is what Tito had to say after the game.

"Tight hammy. The same one he had before May. Hopefully, we got him out and didn't do something silly where he misses something significant, but hopefully he'll be OK. We will reevaluate him in the morning and see how he 's doing."

Hopefully this wont be anything big and he'll be in the lineup tonight and put to rest any worries. Sadly, with Drew's history we must trend carefully with him. If i was to knock him, the injury issue would be fair game.

Farm Hens: Taiwan

2007-07-14T12:03:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox have two extremely interesting players from Taiwan. They both have great promise, but are still far from the majors. Their names are Chih-Hsien Chiang and Che-Hsuan Lin. Expect to hear their names going forward as the Red Sox try to build a bigger influence in the East.

Chih-Hsien Chiang is the older and more highly totted of the 2. He is a 19 year old 2nd baseman. Standing 6' 1" and 180, he is slightly big for a 2nd baseman, but his deficiencies in the field limit him. It is possible to see him move to the outfield, but i strongly doubt it. He isn't your typical Red Sox player, walking only 5% if the time. To his credit, he is known for making good contact. That hasn't stood up so far in A ball, but the reputation is there. He has great power for a second baseman, but his LD% is very concerning. So far this year, he has only been able to post a 7% rate. That goes along with the other numbers he has posted, 10% and 11% at Lowell and the GCL respectively. For all the things that i don't like about him, he has been able to put up good numbers. Last year he had an OPS of .836 and this year at A ball he is hitting .737. The "Lebron of Taiwan" is a player that many are excited about. I would temper the excitement. The reality is far less than the reputation.

The man that i am more excited about is Che-Hsuan Lin. He is one year younger than Chiang and has far more athletic ability. He has great speed and a gun for an arm. Their are striking similarities to another Asian player, Ichiro. It was believed that if he had been in the draft he would have been a top 60 pick. He has already started Rookie ball, and has marginal success. For all of the down things, their are positive trends. He has been able to walk 13% of the time and shown an ability to steal bases. So far he has hit .211/.304/.333 but i'd expect that to rise because of his weak BABIP, which stand at .289. For a man that grounds the ball less than 50%, it should be higher. I believe the power will come along. It is much easier to teach a man power than teach a man to be patient. Odd how that is, but it's true. The simple size is so small at this point, it's hard to make a real judgement on the stats. So unlike Chiang, i think we will have to believe the hype for a little longer.

Expiring contracts

2007-07-13T12:54:00.000-05:00

After the 2007 season, several contracts will have expired, freeing up some cash for the Red Sox. The Sox current payroll is $143,026,214. I think that Henry and Company would be willing to pump the payroll up to around $150 million, but not much further. I base that on their willingness to pursue Clemens. The contracts that are expiring this year are:

Curt Schilling - $13 million
Matt Clement - $9.5 million
Mike Lowell - $9 million
Eric Hinske - $5.625 million
Joel Piniero - $4 million

That means the Red Sox will have about $41 million dollars to work with. Add on the extra money they are probably willing to spend, I say Theo will have about $50 million to work with this off-season. My guess, however, is not much of that money is spent. Looking at the 5 big loses you see one injured old pitcher, one pitcher that has hardly pitched the past 2 years, a starting 3rd baseman, a utility man, and a 6th inning reliever. Basically, only Schilling and Lowell need to be replace.

Clement has been a complete non-factor on this team. He has no spot to be replaced. Eric Hinske is a nice bat to have coming off the bench, but a David Murphy or Brandon Moss could do the same thing at a league minimum. Joel Piniero is a nice like reliever. He has his days were he is great and his days were he is worthless. By no means is he irreplaceable. I would love if Craig Breslow would replace him today. Once again, would probably we pitching for a league minimum. Those 3 players are making close to $20 million this year. Their replacements could easily be in the range of $1-2 million.

Schilling and Lowell are going to be harder to replace. Their are no internal options to play 3rd. The only player that can is currently manning 1st, Youkilis. To be blunt, there are no options in free agency either. Adam Dunn may have his contract opted out of and A-Rod may opt out himself, but i don't see the Sox as a major player in either of those players. More likely than not, Lowell will get a new contract. I think a 2 year $20 million contract would be great. It all depend on what Lowell wants. I'm sure he could get a better deal, but hopefully the allure of playing in Boston for a contender will help out the cause.

Schilling is interesting. He has said he wants to come back to Boston. But with his current injury and the age concerns, i don't know if that's all that great of an idea. He will probably ask for a 1 year deal worth anywhere between $10-15 million. It is too early for me to judge whether i want it or not. If he can come back health and pitch well in October, I'd go for it. I just don't believe that it will happen. The Sox have both Lester and Buchholz waiting in the wings. They would both be nice options, since they are young and cheap. It kind of scares me to have that many young pitchers, however. I'd love to watch a rotation of Dice-K/Beckett/Buchholz/Lester/Wakefield but i just don't know if that's enough. A lot of inexperienced pitchers in that group. The only pitcher older than 28 would be Wake. I'm on the wait and see side with Schilling. If he does walk, i would not be shock if Theo makes a trade for a Dontrell Willis type player to round out the rotation.

The Red Sox have money to spend, and even more this off-season. I would expect them to sit back this year and let some of these farm hens to strut their stuff, but nothing would surprise me. No matter what happens, expect the team to look different next year.

Farm Hens: Under 18

2007-07-12T13:10:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox have 3 extremely interesting players in their organization. What links these four players together is all are under the age of 18.

The newest, and most highly tooted player is Michael Almanzar. He is a 6' 5" 16 year old from the Dominican Republic. He recently signed with the Red Sox for a $1.5 million signing bonus. The name might seem familiar because his father, Carlos Almanzar, spent time in the major leagues and is currently in the Red Sox minor league system. He has played both SS and 3b but because of his size, he is more likely to stay at third. The kids has great bat speed but not much of a glove. He has all the potential in the world, but like most young kids, he needs to turn that potential into reality. He is likely to start next year in the GCL.

Oscar Tejeda, a 17 year old SS also from the Dominican Republic, is a very exciting player to keep and eye on. He is not built like Almanzar, standing only 6' 1", but has all the potential. He plays a solid D for SS and has a good eye at the plate. Great bat speed and blistering wheels, Tejeda could be an exceptional lead off hitter. To go along with those attributes, he has very good power potential and may be able to SLG .500 some day. Currently, he is hitting .299/.355/.478 at the Red Sox GCL team. He has great composure for a 17 year old and may be the quickest out of this group to make an serious impact.

If you can say a 17 year old has been disappointing, Engel Beltre fits the bill. Another 17 year old out of the Dominican, he has 5 tool potential as and OFer. He is the only lefty of the group, so he does have that going for him. Like many players coming out of the DR he is undersized. He needs to put on muscle to the 6' 1" build before he can really make an impact. Once that happens, he has the swing to be a serious power hitter. Defensively, he is already there. He has a great arm and decent range. He could either pass as a CF or RF. Center field is his natural position. Thus far, he has hit .172/.316/.250 at the Gulf Coast League. His BABIP is kind of low, .275, so i expect the number to improve naturally. Keep and eye on Beltre because he may be the Red Sox version of Tabata in 2 years.

Update: Engel Beltre is now a member of the Texas Rangers.

I love Drew

2007-07-11T17:55:00.000-05:00

Once again, I am here to defend J.D. Drew. I am not going to run down his attributes again. If you don't believe that he has all the skills to be a great player, than fine. But for those people that see what i see and are confused why he is not succeeding, i have a some numbers to explain. Here are his lines by month's.

April - .278/.376/.392
May - .171/.315/.237
June - .325/.404/.558
July - .250/.400/.333

At this point I should not that he hasn't had many ABs in July, so all those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. What is clear is he was great in June and awful in May. That begs the question, what was so different about the two month's? I think it can be explained by his BABIP, GB%, LD%. Here are the breakdowns by month:

April - .333/.51/.13
May - .210/.58/.19
June - .368/.53/.19
July - .353/.38/.06

His career line is normally about .320/.50/.17. Looking at that, May was an extremely unlucky month. With that LD%, he should have had a BABIP near .300. If that had happened, his line would have looked closer to .250/.400/.350. While the power still looks bad, if i can get and OBP of .400 every month i'll love it. There aren't many right fielders that can do that, but he can.

The only real knock on him is the lack of power. He is putting up way to many ground balls, about 53%. What stresses me more about that is 42.9% of those are pulled. Only 18.2% of all his contact is making it to left field. If he can get that up, he will be hitting the monster more. That means more doubles, based on the way he runs. More doubles means higher SLG%.

All that being said, the guy will walk 17% of the time every season. He will play an extremely good right field. Finally, he will start to hit doubles. Patience is a virtue. Fenway is an awful place for lefties. Until they learn to go to the opposite field, he will not be putting up the power numbers. This guy is too talented not to learn that. If it doesn't happen this year, i will promise you it will next year. Once Theo and Tito understand how to use him, he will begin to shine. You can hold me to that.

Defense matters

2007-07-11T13:25:00.000-05:00

Crisp and Lugo have taken a lot of slack this year, and believe me i've lead the charge. But to my surprise, both have been amazing at defense. In defensive Win Shares, both rank in the top 10 in the AL. Crisp ranks #1 overall, with a 5.6. That is an extremely high number that is hard not to mention. This just goes to show you, there are many different ways for a player to help a team.

Oh no

2007-07-11T10:01:00.000-05:00

Injuries are finally starting to catch up with the Red Sox. Curt Schilling has had an extremely rough time coming back from a sore right shoulder. He has been pushed back 3 times already from returning. Crisp and Beckett have already missed time. Now, it appears that Ortiz may be out for awhile. He has been having soreness in his quads and hamstring problem. The plan right now is for the surgery to wait till the off-season, but that could easily change.

The question must be ask, if Papi is gone what do the Sox do? If they are going with internal options, it must be Brandon Moss. He could take over in left and put Manny at DH. I know everyone will want to see Ellsbury up, but i really don't think he is ready. Not to mention that he doesn't really make up for what we lose in Papi. I think a platoon of Moss and Pena will take up some of the slack left from Papi. Obviously, Drew, Manny, Lugo, and Crisp are going to need to start playing to their potential.

If we go outside the organization, where do we look? There are only 2 players out there that could help make up for Ortiz, Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira. The problem with Teixeira is he's a first baseman. I would much rather find an outfielder or DH so the transition could be smooth. Getting a first baseman means either Youks or Lowell will be DHing, and both are extremely good in the field. Dunn would be very nice. We could throw him in left, than next year put him at 1st when Lowell walks. That would be my choice. But to be honest, i don't know if the price for either player would be worth it.

Farm Hens : Justin Masterson

2007-07-10T13:58:00.000-05:00

Masterson is the often forgotten pitcher in the Sox farm system. This 6' 6" 22 year old righty was a 2nd round draft pick in 2006. His pitches include a 2-seam fastball that is devastating, a really good slider, and a circle change. As you can see from those pitches, he pitches to contact and gets a ton of ground balls. At Lowell last year, he posted a 74% GB rate in 31.2 innings. He also was able to post an ERA of 0.85 and stroke out 33 while walking only 2.

Coming into this season, he was converted into a start. To make things worse for Masterson, Lancaster is a hitters haven. As one would guess, his numbers regressed a little. He posted an ERA of 4.42 in 95.2 innings before getting the promotion to Portland. While at Lancaster his GB% came back down to earth, 54%, as well as his BABIP, 313.

The future for Masterson is still in doubt. Nobody knows if his future is as a starter or reliever. Personally, i think he should stay as a starter. There is no reason why he couldn't pitch 6 innings every 5th day. He has the build of a starter, not to mention the attitude. This is a very confident young man. His stuff does not translate to a set-up or closer. Because of that, i think he has too much talent as a long reliever. Either way, this is a player to keep an eye on.

Players with Options

2007-07-10T10:44:00.000-05:00

We have looked at the players that will be FAs, now lets look at the players with options. These players could become free agents if they decide to opt out or their team declines their options, it all matters on what the contract stipulates. A-Rod has a player option, however Dunn has a team option. The line goes name, age, contract stipulations, than OPS+ or ERA+.

Ivan Rodriguez - 36 - $13MM club option for '08 - 113
Adam Dunn - 28 - $13MM club option for '08; becomes free agent after season if traded - 128
Jeff Kent - 40 - $9MM club option vests with 550 PAs this year - 125
Marcus Giles - 30 - $4MM club option for '08 - 106
Juan Uribe - 29 - $5MM club option for '08 - 80
Cesar Izturis - 28 - $5.45MM club option for '08 -67
Alex Rodriguez - 32 - Has ability to opt out of contract after season - 145
Geoff Jenkins - 33 - $9MM club option for '08 - 117
Bobby Abreu - 34 - $16MM club option for '08 - 135
Jose Guillen - 32 - $9MM club option for '08 - 99
Shawn Green - 35 - $10MM club option for '08 - 120
Randy Wolf - 31 - $9MM club option for '08 - 102
Paul Byrd - 37 - $8MM club option for '08 - 105
Tom Glavine - 42 - $9MM player option for '08 - 119
Kris Benson - 33 - $7.5MM club option for '08 - 101
Odalis Perez - 31 - $9MM club option for '08 - 94
Brett Tomko - 35 - $4.5MM mutual option for '08 - 93
Jason Isringhausen - 35 - $8MM club option for '08 - 120

Like the FA's, look for these names to come up in trade talks. My prediction is Dunn will get moved, and he will be the biggest name of all that move.

Free Agent Pitchers

2007-07-10T10:32:00.000-05:00

We already took a look at the FA hitters, now we will look at the pitchers. The first number is the pitchers age than his career ERA+.

Starting pitchers
Carlos Zambrano - 27 - 130
Curt Schilling - 41 - 126
Jason Jennings - 29 - 103
Freddy Garcia - 32 - 111
Kenny Rogers - 43 - 110
Jon Lieber - 38 - 103
Bartolo Colon - 35 - 112
Joe Kennedy - 29 - 97
Tomo Ohka - 32 - 108
John Thomson - 34 - 103
Kip Wells - 31 - 96
Wade Miller - 31 - 109
Livan Hernandez - 33 - 101
Jeff Weaver - 31 - 95
Jaret Wright - 32 - 90
David Wells - 45 - 109
Eric Milton - 32 - 94
Kyle Lohse - 29 - 95
Matt Clement - 33 - 96
Rodrigo Lopez - 32 - 92
Josh Fogg - 31 - 89
Byung-Hyun Kim - 29 - 110

Closers
Mariano Rivera - 38 - 195
Bob Wickman - 39 - 124
Francisco Cordero - 33 - 146
Armando Benitez - 35 - 143
Eric Gagne - 32 - 129
Todd Jones - 40 - 111

Middle relievers
Scott Linebrink - 31 - 134
Jorge Julio - 29 - 102
Kerry Wood - 31 - 116

It isn't an awful list. There are some definite good pitchers on this list. Sadly, with Buehrle signing a contract extension the best pitcher is off the market. Look for these pitchers names to come up in trade talks this month.

Buchholz gets promoted

2007-07-10T09:31:00.000-05:00

Buchholz has finally got the call to pitch at Pawtucket. Clay is widely considered the best pitching prospect left in the minors. He is clearly the best prospect the Red Sox have to offer. So far, he has completely dominated AA. He posted a 1.77 ERA and was sporting an amazing K/BB rate of 116/22. Looking at that, it's not hard to see why he is so highly totted. Now that he will be pitching in Pawtucket, he is only one step away from the big show. If he continues to succeed at AAA, i would not be shocked at all if he see time with the Red Sox. If Schilling continues to be hurt and Lester continues to strike no one out, Buchholz may be next in line. If he hasn't been up yet, come September expect Buccholz to be wearing a Big League jersey.

Where are we at?

2007-07-09T14:37:00.000-05:00

The Starting pitching has been great this season. Lets take a look at where we are and where Marcel says we should be at.

Beckett
Projected - 4.28 - 1.28 - 7.5 - 3.1
Actual - 3.44 - 1.14 - 8.4 - 1.9

Schilling
Projected - 4.45 - 1.33 - 7.5 - 1.9
Actual - 4.20 - 1.36 - 6.8 - 1.8

Wakefield
Projected - 4.74 - 1.39 - 5.9 - 3.2
Actual - 4.39 - 1.33 - 5.3 - 3.6

Tavarez
Projected - 4.55 - 1.48 - 5.8 - 3.4
Actual - 4.97 - 1.45 - 5.2 - 3.2

Sorry, no Dice-K. Marcel didn't do a projection for him and i feel like i need to keep the numbers constant. The only other thing i need to to is Tavarez's numbers. Those are projections as him relieving. They might have been different had the fact that he'd be a starting pitcher been factored in.

Besides Tavarez, everybodies ERA is lower than the projections. I like to see that, but it also is kinda scary. I hope that these are the real numbers not the projections. Beckett has been the real star. He is killing his projections. He has become the ace that he has always viewed himself as. The command is much better, and that is the key.

No more Paps

2007-06-28T13:35:00.000-05:00

No Papelbon is hurt, he is just changing his name. He would like to go by "Cinco Ocho", the reverse of Chad Johnson's nickname. "Cinco Ocho" is Spanish for 58, Papelbon's numbers. Personally I love it, and will in brass this new name.

2008 Free Agents (hitters)

2007-06-28T11:39:00.000-05:00

Being an off-day, I'll take a look at the future. Who are the players that the Red Sox and the rest of the league will be bidding on this summer. Here are a list of the hitters that will be reaching free agency this winter. I plan on doing this for pitchers and players with club/player options.

Name/age/career OPS+

Catcher
Jorge Posada - 36 - 123
Paul Lo Duca - 36 - 102
Michael Barrett - 31 - 90
Jason Kendall - 34 - 102

1st Baseman
None

2nd Baseman
Luis Castillo - 32 - 93
Tadahito Iguchi - 33 - 97

Shortstops
David Eckstein - 33 - 89
Omar Vizquel - 41 - 84

3rd Baseman
Mike Lowell - 34 - 110
Mike Lamb - 32 - 95
Pedro Feliz - 33 - 86

Right Fielder
Jermaine Dye - 34 - 109
Milton Bradley - 30 - 106
Trot Nixon - 34 - 115
Eric Hinske - 30 - 100

Center Fielder
Ichiro Suzuki - 34 -121
Andruw Jones - 31 - 116
Torii Hunter - 32 - 104
Eric Byrnes - 32 - 102
Corey Patterson - 28 - 82
Aaron Rowand - 30 - 103
Mike Cameron - 35 - 107
Kenny Lofton - 41 - 107

Left Fielder
Luis Gonzalez - 40 - 121
Barry Bonds - 43 - 183
Brad Wilkerson - 31 - 107

DH
Shea Hillenbrand - 32 - 97
Mike Piazza - 39 - 144
Mike Sweeney - 34 - 118
Sammy Sosa - 39 - 128

When you look at this list, you will see a lot of players that may be traded at the deadline. With dying contracts, teams will try to get what they can for these players. Up next, pitchers.

Schilling out

2007-06-28T11:33:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox plan on sitting Schilling till after the All-Star break. With his spot in the rotation coming up two more times, the question must be asked who will pitch them? Gabbard seems to be the guy for the first start. As long as he doesn't completely bomb i think they will throw him out there for that last start. Schilling should be well rested after the break and we will get to see a little bit of what Gabbard really has, in turns of potential. I like this move all the way around.

Nick Hagadone close to signing

2007-06-27T14:45:00.000-05:00

Nick Hagadone, the 55th pick in this years draft, claims that the Red Sox and him are close to signing a contract. He also said that he is planning on going to Lowell after signing and pitching 2-3 innings and outing. Personally, i am extremely excited. Going to Lowell and living so close, i hope to see him at least once or twice.

Hagadone is a 6'5" 230 lbs. lefty with very good stuff. His fastball tops at around 93 MPH with good movement. He throws the typical power slider into lefties. It is probably his best pitch and is almost impossible to lefties to hit. His change-up is developing, but is still not where it needs to be. On the bright side, he has great command of all pitching, including the change, which makes him look like a great pick.

It is unclear how Hagadone fits into the future of the Sox. He has the ability to start, but i think he is much better suited in the pen. He was a closer at college so my guess is that's the route he goes in. There are no health concerns to mention. From what i hear, he is also a very confident pitcher that shows leadership potential. Sounds like a closer to me. First thing's first, lets get him signed and pitching in Lowell.

Lugo is the new Coco

2007-06-27T10:52:00.000-05:00

The past month has marked the turning point in the Red Sox organization. No longer is Coco Crisp the whipping boy or the man everyone blames for loses. The new man is Julio Lugo, and it is hard to not understand why. Lugo currently has a VORP of -10.5 an EqA of .198 and a Rate-2 102. His glove is basically average and everything else is below average. What separates Crisp and Lugo is that when Crisp struggles he brought a great glove (a 122 Rate-2) and good speed. Lugo has good speed and nothing much after that.

Cora started the game last night in place of Lugo. I wonder if this is a sign to come. Lugo has to play, probably about 2/3's of the time at a minimum. The Sox have too much money invested in him to let him rot on the bench, but they have too much invested in this team not give Cora more ABs. This is a situation that will test Tito and his abilities as a manager. Finding the medium between Cora and Lugo may decide this teams future.

Dice-K's a music genious

2007-06-26T18:04:00.000-05:00

"Music from the Mound", the Dice-K compilation, is the long awaited "greatest hits" CD in the eyes of Dice-K. When I am thinking about buying a CD i think to myslef "would Dice-K like this?" Now i have the answer. You can pre-order or wait till July 17th for what appears to be the best CD in years at Dicekcd.com. You wouldn't want to miss Jerry Remy's "Gyro Ball." It is sure to own the charts in weeks to come.

Pen help

2007-06-26T16:51:00.000-05:00

It is getting more clear that the Red Sox bullpen is not as good as one would believe looking at the raw numbers. Players like Okajima and Snyder are playing above their head. Donnelly is currently on the DL and is getting up their in age. Finally, Timlin is a bum. I hate to say that but he brings nothing to this team. Mop up duty is not what we need from Timlin. The bullpen isn't deep enough for a pitcher to solely pitch in blowouts. So that marks the question, who can replace them. There are several in house and out of house options that should be explored.

In House:

Craig Breslow - He is a lefty that has been almost unhittable at Pawtucket. He has posted a WHIP under 1 and an ERA under 1.75. His K/BB rate (43/8) is great. He has had some time at the major league level, and has succeeded in his short time.
Devern Hansack - While he didn't look great in the start he got earlier this year, he does have Major League success. How fast we forget about the no-hitter he threw to end the season last year. His AAA numbers are great, but he spent all his time as a starter. He has a 3.19 ERA and WHIP of 1.09, to go along with his 71/16 K/BB rate. He has a great slider/fastball combo that could be great if used in the 7th inning.
Travis Hughes - I know, who is this guy? He is the 29 year old closer down at Pawtucket. He is having a career year and maybe it would be a good idea to see if he can help out while he is hot. He is sporting a great ERA and WHIP of 1.32 and 1.00. He doesn't have the command as the other options, but he has still been great.

Out of House:

Chad Cordero - This guy comes with a lot of baggage, mainly because of where he is coming from. Washington has been known to be awful trading partners. They are notorious for asking for way to much and not budging. A deal that would have landed Wily Mo Pena in Washington and Cordero in Boston almost happened in the off-season. I don't think it's crazy to think that deal my be revisited.
Brian Fuentes - My favorite guy of them all. He has done nothing but pitch well since joining the Rockies. The 31 year old lefty is in his 3rd year as the Rockies closer and has a nice ERA of 2.36. Imagine what this guy could do if he gets out of Coors Field. He is also under control for another year, so he wouldn't be a rental.
Scott Linebrink - He has been rumored to be coming to Boston for what appears to be years. One of the best set-up men of the past 5 years, he is a hard throwing righty. The offensively deprived Padres may be enticed my Wily Mo or Brandon Moss. I think the asking price may be high for Linebrink, but everyone is going to be at a high price.

Because everyone is going to cost more than they are worth, I would advise fixing internally. The Sox have some good arms in AAA that aren't too far removed from the alternatives. I think the pen is an easy fix, but will the FO pull the trigger. The allegiance they have to veteran players may finally come back and bite them in the ass.

How great have the Starters been?

2007-06-26T13:55:00.000-05:00

A little while ago, Jeff Sackmann of the Hardball Times, wrote an article examining the ERA of pitchers and their position, #1 or #2 and so on. Here is what he found from 2006.

Al averages
#1 - 3.70
#2 - 4.24
#3 - 4.58
#4 - 5.09
#5 - 6.22

Boston 2006
#1 - 3.84
#2 - 4.54
#3 - 4.92
#4 - 5.15
#5 - 6.95

Boston 2007
Beckett - 3.07
Dice-K - 4.01
Schilling - 4.20
Wakefield - 4.52
Tavarez - 4.60

To sum up those numbers, Boston is CRUSHING them. At every spot they are fair exceeding last years performance and the league averages. If they can keep these numbers up, it will be nearly impossible for any team to catch they, including the Yankees. That type of consistency is extremely hard to overcome.

BABIP is no excuse

2007-06-26T08:33:00.000-05:00

The few remaining Lugo fans are scrapping to find excuses for why he is not succeeding. Most will point out his .210 BABIP. Normally, his BABIP is in the range of .320-.330. The supporters of this will say that he is just getting unlucky and his BA will naturally increase. But that isn't necessarily right. When looking at BABIP you need to look at his LD% and GB%. That will tell you if he is hitting the ball well or hitting weak grounders. When you look at those numbers you see his LD% is down (14%) and GB% is up (53.8). Since Lugo is a gap hitters and needs to be slapping the ball to all parts of the park and he isn't doing that, he isn't naturally going to improve. Something bigger than luck is preventing him from succeeding. Personally, I think he is a head case and is pressing too much. Hopefully he will turn it around, because there are no other options.

WTF ESPN?

2007-06-25T19:49:00.000-05:00

Can someone please explain what i am looking at? This might be the dumbest thing ESPN has ever put together. According to this, the Sox have no one in the "Best line-up" for the AL, "Best Rotation" for the AL, or "All-Star starter." How the best team in baseball doesn't have one representative just baffles me. People should just stop trying to make the uber-stat. WARP-3, VORP, EqA, ERA/OPS+, Win Shares, and Runs Created are all needed when evaluating a player.

Kevin Goldstein Chat

2007-06-25T17:53:00.001-05:00

Kevin is always a great chat. He is the man when it comes to anything and everything below the majors. He went extremely long today, so a bunch of Sox questions were asked.

yamanin (Seoul, Korea): Are you ready to change your tune on Dustin PedroiaChase Utley and B.J. Upton are clearly outhitting him, and if the season ended today he'd probably win the AL ROY. Time to rename the Pedroia/Clippard award.
yet? Among major league second basemen, only
Kevin Goldstein: Hello Seoul!

I think Pedroia is better than 06 and not this good, his career line is now .278/.354/.402 and I think that's about right. I still could be wrong.

calcar (Boston): What are your thoughts on Jed Lowrie and Jeff Corsaletti?
Kevin Goldstein: I'd like Lowrie much more if his defensive reviews were better, but I'm not convinced he can play on the left side every day, so that makes him an offensive 2B. Corsaletti is a corner OF in the end who has some on-base skills but little else -- I have a hard time seeing him as anything more than a bench outfielder.
Matt (Burbs of Chicago): Buehrle is on his way out in Chicago. With that being the case, would you make this deal if you were Kenny Williams Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury for your soon-to-be FA LH SP? How about the BoSox -- does the deal make sense from their end?
Kevin Goldstein: The Red Sox would NEVER NEVER EVER do that.

Kanstey (Boston, MA): Bucholz or Joba? Bowden or Kennedy? Bard or Betances?
Kevin Goldstein: Bucholz, Bowden, Betances

pmoc81 (Orlando): After posting an .833 ops thus far in June, Delmon Young will raise his average to _____ by the end of the season, hitting _____ home runs and finishing _____ in the AL ROY voting, but losing to _____, an overrated player from New England.
Kevin Goldstein: .290/.330/.461; 21; 2nd; Dice-K

thegame92797 (NYC): Any reason to still think Craig Hansen is the future closer of the Red Sox?
Kevin Goldstein: None that I can think of.

jtsports01 (Boston): Buchholz's upside is _______
Kevin Goldstein: Ace. Pure number one starter.

Dave (NJ): = A poor man's David Cone Brett Gardner = Jason Kevin - What do you think of these comparisons: MatsuzakaTyner
Kevin Goldstein: I actually think I kind of like both.

Buehrle to the Sox?

2007-06-24T09:42:00.000-05:00

Apparently the Red Sox are now the strongest suitor for Mark Buehrle. This comes as a surprise to myself, as i see starting pitching as their biggest asset. For starting pitching options, not only do we have Schilling, Wakefield, Dice-K, Beckett, and Tavarez, but we also have Gabbard, Hansack, Lester, Pauley, and Buchholz that all could hold their own on the major league stage. But with Wakefield struggling, Schilling on the DL, and both those pitchers contracts up at the end of the year it shouldn't come as a huge surprise the Sox would look for a veteran pitcher.

Now, their are two questions that have to be asked. What are we getting? and What do we need to give up? The first one is the simple one. We are getting a 28 year old pitcher on the last year of his contract. It is believed that if the Sox did acquire him they would give him a 5 year contract extension. Personally, i wish is was in the 3-year range, but i don't believe Buehrle would go for that. Buehrle has seen his fair share of batters, pitching 200+ innings in 6 straight years. That scares me because he is bound to eventually get hurt. Only one time has he had an ERA+ below league average, but sadly that was last season. He has bounced back great this ear, posting a WHIP of 1.05 and a 60/17 K/BB rate.

What are we going to give up? Depends on what the White Sox are looking for. They have strong needs in the minors as well as the majors. They are a team is complete disarray. Very little talent at the AAA and AA level. If they plan on building at those level the likely names you'll hear are Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Moss. They have a bad bullpen so you might hear names like Delcarmen, Hansen, Hansack, Gabbard or Pineiro. They could also use some major league ready talent like Murphy, Pena, Hinske, or Crisp.

That is a lot of possibilities to choose from. Since Jermaine Dye is on his way out and Pods has no right in the MLB i think they ask for an outfielder. My guess is they ask for Pena/Ellsbury. I really don't mind either being traded. I think Ellsbury has been overrated by Red Sox fans and Pena has no chance playing for the Sox anytime soon. They will probably want a starting pitcher to replace Buehrle. They will most likely ask for Buccholz, but he should be untouchable. So than they might ask for 2 out of Bowden, Gabbard, and Hansack. I am not opposed to that at all. If it does end up being Bowden, i don't think a second player will be needs.

Final trade, Red Sox get Buehrle and White Sox get Pena/Bowden. I like that trade. It looks fair and appears to be exactly what both teams need. I really don't like the idea of this trade, however. I think the Red Sox should be looking for relief help. Keeping a pitcher away from the Yankees is hardly a reason to trade for someone.

Dumbest experts ever

2007-06-23T14:41:00.000-05:00

Sport Illustrated has a poll in their most recent magazine regarding building a team. 14 experts were polled and asked who each would pick has the player he/she would want to start their team with. It is an extremely interesting question and almost impossible to get it wrong, but they did. #1 was easy, Jose Reyes, but #2 was a complete surprise, Jonathan Papelbon. I am a Sox fan, but not even the most hard core would think he is the second best player in any respect. He isn't even the player i would pick off the Sox to start a team with. I would take both Dice-K and Beckett over Paps. Paps is a closer, an until he becomes a start is not special. I love him but come on, #2.

He looked GREAT last night, though.

Sox Zone Ratings

2007-06-22T08:27:00.001-05:00

Earlier this week The Hardball Times came out with their first Zone Rating stats of the year. Their version of ZR is different from ESPN's because plays outside a players zone is secluded. Personally, i think this is a much more efficient way at looking at the stat and it is probably the best defensive stat out there (FRAA is in the discussion).

The Red Sox have some strong showings and some weak showings. Here are the players rank by position.

Kevin Youkilis - 1st (.860)
Dustin Pedroia - 7th (.862)
Julio Lugo - 24th (.794)
Mike Lowell - 5th (.738)
Manny Ramirez - 19th (.701)
Coco Crisp - 5th (.921)
J.D. Drew - 17th (.847)

Overall, it could be worse. Our infield defensive has been strong, Crisp has been amazing, and Manny is hurt because it is impossible to quantify how well he plays the Monster. I am not saying he is a good defender, but he has mastered left field like few others. Lugo has just plain stunk. This is pretty much were is career ZR is, as well. What makes him an alright defender is how large his range is and the strong arm he possesses. Pedroia has been a pleasant surprise, i really hope this is a sign of things to come. Not just for Pedroia but most of the Sox.

Replacing Schilling

2007-06-21T17:12:00.000-05:00

With Schilling going on the DL, the Sox are faced with an issue, who replaces Schilling. Luckily for the Red Sox their are many different options, and all bring good resumes. Basically, the options come down the 3 righties, Pauley/Hansack/Buccholz, and 2 lefties, Gabbard/Lester. Out of those pitchers, all have has major league experience and some relative success except Buccholz. What he has going for him is his incredible potential. Widely regarded as the best pitching prospect left in the minors, Buchholz has all the making of a star. The question for him is whether he is ready or not. He has yet to make the leap to AAA, but that is not always a death sentence. Lets look at the raw stats;

Player - Lvl - age - IP - ERA - WHIP - K - BB
Kason Gabbard - AAA - 25 - 69 - 3.26 - 1.22 - 58 - 23
David Pauley - AAA - 24 - 75.1 - 3.35 - 1.21 - 54 - 20
Devern Hansack - AAA - 29 - 65.1 - 3.44 - 1.18 - 64 - 16
Jon Lester - AAA - 23 - 56.1 - 2.40 - 1.16 - 28 - 16
Clay Buchholz - AA - 22 - 74 - 1.82 - 0.91 - 100 - 18

Gabbard looks good because of his solid numbers, the fact he is a lefty, and he had some success already in the majors. Pauley did not have the same success as Gabbard, but has put up equal numbers to him all season. He is also a year younger, which might mean he has more room for growth than Gabbard. Hansack looked awful in his stint with the big club. I love his numbers at Pawtucket, but he is better used as a reliever with that deadly fastball slider combo he has. Lester would be the natural choice, but he isn't striking out anyone. That is a major issue and it leads me to believe he doesn't have is stuff back quite yet. Buchholz is the future, not the present. He is the best of all these pitcher, i can't deny, but he needs some action in AAA prior to the majors.

Verdict: Gabbard wins the job. It is only going to work out to 2 starts, so it's not like this is a long term opportunity. Let Gabbard come up, get some experience, and bridge the gap to Schilling. I don't see any of these pitchers making an impact this season, so we should focus our attention on getting Schilling healthy not developing talent.

Keith Law/Will Carroll Chat Recap

2007-06-21T15:00:00.000-05:00

Jake (Salt Lake): Do you think Lester is ready to be called up during Schilling's DL stint? Is he striking out enough batters? Thanks.

Keith Law: (2:10 PM ET ) His stuff isn't all the way back, which is why his K rate is down, but I'm more concerned about how well he'll hold up deeper into the summer. Fatigue is the big factor for him in 2007.

Jim: (Irvine, CA):: Rank the following...Lincecum, Bailey, Hughes, Buchholz, Gallardo. Keep up the good work...

Keith Law: (2:11 PM ET ) Hm, good question. As starters, probably Hughes, Gallardo, Buchholz, Lincecum, Bailey. But if he becomes a reliever, Lincecum rules them all.

Bob Winthrop: Hi Keith. We read alot about Bucholz and Bowden. I was just wondering if you liked Kris Johnson or Justin Masterson? As always thank you.

Keith Law: (2:13 PM ET ) I like Masterson quite a bit, but as a reliever - a true sinker/slider guy, not a "sinker/slider guy" who doesn't sink the fastball. Never seen Johnson, but I should see him whenever he gets to AA.

Ryan (Vancouver): What is wrong with Julio Lugo? Seriously, is there something we can do to help? He looks lost.

Keith Law: (2:27 PM ET ) If you happen to find his bat lying around somewhere, I'm pretty sure the Red Sox would accept it COD.

Khalid (Boston): Dustin Pedroia 2007 ROY, thoughts?

Keith Law: (2:32 PM ET ) I'd probably go Guthrie, Willits, Pedroia. Maybe flip the last two. Pedroia could easily win it if the season ended today - high batting average on a prominent team.

Kevin (Boston): Dice-K and Okajiema have no place in the AL ROY discussion?

Keith Law: (2:43 PM ET ) 4th and 5th, respectively - but I believe the ballot (which I don't get anyway!) only has three spots.

Paul (Atlanta): Keith, love the chats. What kind of player does Jed Lowrie project to be? Love his OBP.

Keith Law: (3:05 PM ET ) Slap-hitting guy who'll take a walk, was pretty rough at 2b in college (which was the last time I saw him - team USA, in Keene, as a matter of fact). Needs to hit for average to be an everyday player in the big leagues, because I don't see any power in that swing.

Jay (West Dover, VT): Keith, I know Beckett has been outstanding, but is Theo regretting trading Hanley at all? With Julio Lugo batting .201, Theo HAS to think "what if" with Hanley Ramirez emerging has one of the best short stops in the game.

Keith Law: (3:13 PM ET ) Except for the fact that Hanley is a brutal defensive shortstop. Now, put him in CF and we can talk.

Ted Fischer (Boston): Any thoughts on Schilling? The MRI was reportedly negative, but he's going on the DL anyways. Is there still cause for Concern?

Will Carroll: I think we have to see if rest cures it. On the heels of Jason Schmidt, it's right to be skittish, but Schilling is nothing if not self-aware.

patman (Tusk-a-loosa): What's up with Schilling? Just a case of coming down with the 40's or something more serious? Maybe Shilling will be the guy to give the currently popular Sunday Starter idea a modern day try. Seems like a perfect fit to me - he and the Red Sox front office seem to be smart enough and grasp the game well enough to understand that ~24 starts by a well rested Schilling and working off days and spot starts around him could be better than trying to get 33 starts out of a Schilling whose body doesn't recover as fast as it used to which leads to inconsistancy from start to start and you still only get 24 starts out of him anyway and have to work spot starters around stints on the DL. Schill could use the extra two days to do more Q&A on his blog and put some office time in with his video game company. He could probably make a midweek relief appearance from time to time too to contribute a few more innings to the team.

Will Carroll: Tusk-a-loosa? Is that a Big Al reference?

No answer here, but I like the discussion enough to just post this. You're right -- he's the right guy, they're the right team.

Gibson Rules (Philly): Where is Matt Clement?

Will Carroll: Rehabbing and being an object lesson for Jason Schmidt. Clement's injuries were a bit more serious, but you could call him the downside projection for Schmidt. Last I heard, September was iffy for a Clement return.

Ok, I cannot do a chat from my massage chair. Which sucks, because it felt great.

Crisp, The Homerun King

2007-06-21T10:00:00.000-05:00

Crisp has had a rough go at it since coming to Boston. He struggled mightily last season, while battling injury, and this season has not been able to hit much of anything. With his future with the team in jeopardy, Crisp has responded. The last week his line has been .522/.560/.957. All those numbers are great, but the power, wow. I always thought he could hit 15-20 home runs, but 3 in one week is way above any of my expectations.

The reason's why his success appears to be more than just water leveling or something supernatural.

Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp put in some extra work before the game with hitting coach Dave Magadan. The centerfielder has been looking to eliminate unnecessary "movement" from his stance and stand taller in the batter's box, Francona said.

Lets hope this is more than just a hot week. While I love Pena and think Ellsbury can be an above-average center fielder some day, i don't believe that either are right for the job this season. Ellsbury needs a full season at Pawtucket and Pena needs to play the corner outfield positions. He is far to great of a defensive liability for center. I think whether or not he keeps this up we have to ride him for the rest of the year. He has no trade value and no great replacement. Hopefully he has turned the corner. The defense has always been there, maybe the bat has caught up.

Josh Beckett or "Ace"

2007-06-20T14:07:00.000-05:00

Beckett has been everything and more for the Red Sox this season. The only problem i can find, his stint on the DL would have to be mentioned, doesn't appear to have lingering effects and has pitched strong since returning. His stats are even better than how he has appeared.

ERA - 3.14
FIP - 3.05
ERA+ - 145
WHIP - 1.07
K/9 - 8.2
BB/9 - 2.2
SLGA - .348
GB% - 50.6%

Looking at his stats, several things jump out. Yes, he has a great ERA, but the question is why? Better control. It is really that simple. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and people are hitting a lot more ground balls. It is no fluke that his stats have improved. He is making better pitches, and better locations. He has used his secondary pitches much more effectively. If he keeps this up, he will finally reach his potential.

Manny Talks

2007-06-20T08:03:00.000-05:00

I don't know if everyone saw, but Manny broke his silence to talk about an important issue involving the Sox, hair care. Check out this important video. Hopefully next time he breaks his silence we can find out about fashion.